Match Info

SPAIN: Segunda RFEF - Group 5 - Round 27

Date: 16 March 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Navalcarnero		Móstoles URJC

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.2	3.6
	1.88	3.1	3.6
	1.93	3.25	3.65
	1.98	3.26	3.7
	1.92	3.35	3.72	Watch
	1.99	3.34	3.75
	1.93	3.25	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.56)	3.25 ↓ (3.63)	3.67 ↓ (5.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Navalcarnero
47.1%

Draw
28%

Móstoles URJC
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

25%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

23.9%

16.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Navalcarnero has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Navalcarnero's form might have worsened.

Móstoles URJC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Móstoles URJC's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Navalcarnero than the current prediction. (+13.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Navalcarnero, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Móstoles URJC than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Móstoles URJC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Navalcarnero - Móstoles URJC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Guerrero F. ⚽,
27', 1 - 1, Claverias A. ⚽,
38', 2 - 1, Monerris A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
81', 2 - 2, Leiton D. ⚽,
90+2', 3 - 2, Perez J. V. ⚽,
90+6', 4 - 2, Verdu J. ⚽,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 8 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Navalcarnero is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Móstoles is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Navalcarnero will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Navalcarnero won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:2 (average 1.4:0.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Navalcarnero won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:2 (average 2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CDA Navalcarnero
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
09.03.25	Getafe B - Navalcarnero	0:1 ✺
02.03.25	Tenerife B - Navalcarnero	1:2 ✺
23.02.25	Navalcarnero - Coria	0:2 ✺
16.02.25	Illescas - Navalcarnero	0:1 ✺
09.02.25	Navalcarnero - Conquense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.6 WWLWW
- CD Móstoles URJC
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
09.03.25	Móstoles URJC - Coria	1:3 ✺
02.03.25	Illescas - Móstoles URJC	0:3 ✺
23.02.25	Móstoles URJC - Conquense	0:1 ✺
16.02.25	Rayo Majadahonda - Móstoles URJC	0:1 ✺
09.02.25	Móstoles URJC - Unión Sur Yaiza	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.7 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
03.11.24	Móstoles URJC - Navalcarnero	0:0
Club Friendly
27.08.22	Navalcarnero - Móstoles URJC	2:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
17.04.22	Navalcarnero - Móstoles URJC	2:1
28.11.21	Móstoles URJC - Navalcarnero	0:1
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
11.12.19	Navalcarnero - Móstoles URJC	2:1

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