Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 - Round 17

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Navalcarnero		Coria

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.2	4.1
	1.83	3.1	3.9
	2.02	3	3.5
	1.99	3.18	3.7	Watch
	2.1	2.9	3.5
	2.06	2.96	3.62
	2	3.1	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.1)	3.06 ↑ (3)	3.73 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Navalcarnero
46%

Draw
29.6%

Coria
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

30%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

29.4%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Navalcarnero has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Coria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Navalcarnero than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coria than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Navalcarnero - Coria Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Navalcarnero will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Coria will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Navalcarnero will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 1 - 0, Messo ⚽,
59', 1 - 1, Mba D. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Navalcarnero may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Navalcarnero might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Navalcarnero won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Navalcarnero won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Navalcarnero	5	2	1	2	8:8	0	7

Last Results with these Odds

Navalcarnero - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 42.8%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CDA Navalcarnero
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
21.12.25	Real Madrid C - Navalcarnero	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Navalcarnero - Colonia Moscardó	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Navalcarnero - Alcalá	3:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
02.12.25	Navalcarnero - Getafe	2:3 ET ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
29.11.25	Rayo Majadahonda - Navalcarnero	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 TWWLT
- CD Coria
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
20.12.25	Coria - Alcalá	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Elche Ilicitano - Coria	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Coria - Tenerife B	2:1 ✺
30.11.25	Socuéllamos - Coria	2:0 ✺
23.11.25	Coria - Las Palmas B	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
23.02.25	Navalcarnero - Coria	0:2
13.10.24	Coria - Navalcarnero	1:2
02.04.23	Coria - Navalcarnero	1:1
20.11.22	Navalcarnero - Coria	2:0

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