Match Info

Liga MX Women - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 8 September 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Victoria (Aguascalientes)

Referee: Sanchez G. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, ViX Gratis, VIX+
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Necaxa		Puebla

	1	X	2
	2.22	3.05	2.98
	2.27	3.35	3.38
	2.23	3.39	3.02	Watch
	2.24	3.13	3.02	Watch
	1.4	4.4	5.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.43)	3.46 ↓ (4.5)	3.53 ↓ (5.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Necaxa
45.8%

Draw
27.4%

Puebla
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.3%

20.1%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

15.4%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Necaxa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Necaxa's form might have worsened.

Puebla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Puebla's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Puebla than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Puebla, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Necaxa - Puebla Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Puebla (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Necaxa (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Necaxa (votes: 1 - 50%). Puebla (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Amaro J. (G) 14. Acosta M. 21. Barnett J. 15. Bracamonte F. 16. Calvillo S. 50. Estrada N. 47. Navarro Flores A. A. 9. Peralta W. 58. Roque Elizondo N. J. 17. Torres A. 5. Vega Garcia B.	1. Machuca Rubio S. G. (G) 26. De Alba L. 6. Fernandez L. 3. Garcia M. 15. Gonzalez J. 16. Martinez D. 12. Martinez L. 23. Rodriguez C. 4. Sanchez L. 25. Suarez P. 21. Villegas Aguilar R. I.
Substitutes
78. Burks T. 59. Gallardo R. 45. Gomez C. 44. Gutierrez A. 54. Hernandez A. 28. Jimenez A. 18. Lopez K. 52. Medellin Z. 19. Ramos M. 2. Velarde Mata A. E. (G)	11. Desales M. 18. Gonzalez J. 52. Hernandez C. 22. Lopez Roque I. S. 19. Perez P. (G) 7. Rojas S. 30. Solis J.
Coaches
Astorga C.	Morales C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Garcia M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Torres A. ↓, Ramos M. ↑,
66', Martinez D. 🟨,
67', Villegas Aguilar R. I. 🟨,
71', Suarez P. ↓, Solis J. ↑,
72', Martinez D. 🟥,
72', 🟨,
73', Estrada N. 🟨,
79', Vega Garcia B. ↓, Medellin Z. ↑,
85', Garcia M. ↓, Lopez Roque I. S. ↑,
86', Martinez L. 🟨,
89', Estrada N. ↓, Gallardo R. ↑,
89', Barnett J. ↓, Burks T. ↑,
90+4', Martinez L. ↓, Rojas S. ↑,
90+4', De Alba L. ↓, Desales M. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 13 and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 1.

Necaxa is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Puebla is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Necaxa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Necaxa is seen as the favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:15. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Necaxa won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:10. (average 2:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Necaxa Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
04.09.25	Santos Laguna - Necaxa	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	Tijuana - Necaxa	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Atlético San Luis - Necaxa	3:0 ✺
18.08.25	Necaxa - Cruz Azul	3:3 ✺
09.08.25	Necaxa - Club America	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WLLTL
- Puebla FC Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
31.08.25	Puebla - Atlético San Luis	0:6 ✺
25.08.25	Puebla - Club León	0:2 ✺
18.08.25	Mazatlan - Puebla	1:1 ✺
13.08.25	Club America - Puebla	3:0 ✺
09.08.25	Puebla - UNAM	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX Women
02.02.25	Necaxa - Puebla	1:1
13.10.24	Puebla - Necaxa	2:0
11.02.24	Puebla - Necaxa	1:0
06.08.23	Necaxa - Puebla	2:1
05.02.23	Puebla - Necaxa	2:0
24.08.22	Necaxa - Puebla	3:3
17.04.22	Puebla - Necaxa	0:1

Necaxa - Puebla: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide