Match Info

Premier League - Round 9

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Palms Sports Arena (Baku) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Aliyev A. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Azerbaijan	19:00	CBC Sport


	Neftchi Baku		Turan Tovuz

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.25	3.60
	1.75	3.3	4.1	Watch
	1.78	3.6	4.68
	1.76	3.47	4.33	Watch
	1.72	3.05	4.55
	1.74	3.2	4.53
	1.78	3.45	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.9)	3.33 ↓ (3.35)	4.28 ↑ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Neftchi Baku
51.4%

Draw
27.3%

Turan Tovuz
21.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

48.4%

27.4%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

26.8%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neftchi Baku has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Turan Tovuz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Turan Tovuz than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Neftchi Baku - Turan Tovuz Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Neftchi (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Neftchi Baku will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Balayev E. (C) 3. Abbasov R. 33. Breno Almeida 55. Gravillon A. 20. Gustavo Klismahn 5. Igor Ribeiro 77. Sacko F. 27. Savic D. 88. Sevelj V. 11. Skribek A. 10. Vargas F.	1. Baklov O. (G) 11. Balau D. 21. Beusnard S. 33. Damjanovic F. 3. Henrique Silva 32. Hurtado H. (C) 90. Jo Batista 4. Mammadov R. 23. Serrano A. 7. Silva J. 77. Wadji I.
Substitutes
26. Akinyemi A. 91. Azizov N. (G) 14. Badalov E. 93. Cafarov R. (G) 6. D'Almeida S. 22. Jubitana D. 18. Mathew I. 7. Safarov E. 97. Sambou B. 24. Seck M. 70. Shtogrin A. 29. Tupta L.	88. Haciyev F. 13. Haciyev M. (G) 15. Hackman E. 28. Jankovic A. 35. Kenyaykin A. (G) 25. Marandici D. 5. Miller R. 19. Olabe R. 17. Sadykhov R. 99. Shafiyev S. 8. Tavares D.
Coaches
Vernydub Y.	Berdyev K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', Igor Ribeiro 🟥,
32', Skribek A. ↓, Badalov E. ↑,
42', Gustavo Klismahn 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, Breno Almeida ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Savic D. ↓, Mathew I. ↑,
52', Balau D. 🟨,
64', Beusnard S. ↓, Tavares D. ↑,
64', Mammadov R. ↓, Olabe R. ↑,
64', Balau D. ↓, Jankovic A. ↑,
64', Henrique Silva ↓, Marandici D. ↑,
69', Badalov E. 🟨,
73', 1 - 1, Jankovic A. ⚽,
73', Silva J. 🟨,
78', Breno Almeida ↓, Safarov E. ↑,
78', Vargas F. ↓, Sambou B. ↑,
86', Sevelj V. 🟨,
88', Wadji I. ↓, Sadykhov R. ↑,
90', Hurtado H. 🟨,
90+2', Gustavo Klismahn ↓, Jubitana D. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - Conference League (Qualification: ) and 5th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Neftchi won 1.

Neftchi is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Turan have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Turan may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Neftchi is considered the favorite to take the win.

Our forecast points to a victory for Neftchi in today's match, at odds of 1.75.

In the last 19 head-to-head meetings, Neftchi has recorded 9 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 24:16 (averaging 1.3:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Neftchi against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with 15:6 goals (averaging 1.5:0.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Neftci Baku	9	5	3	1	22:9	13	18
4	Turan Tovuz	9	4	3	2	8:6	2	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League
17.10.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Neftchi Baku	3:3 ✺
09.10.26	Neftchi Baku - Sabah	0:0 ✺
18.09.26	Gabala - Neftchi Baku	0:3 ✺
11.09.26	İmişli - Neftchi Baku	2:3 ✺
05.09.26	Neftchi Baku - Şəfa	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TTWWW
- Turan Tovuz
Azerbaijan Premier League
18.10.26	İmişli - Turan Tovuz	1:0 ✺
11.10.26	Şəfa - Turan Tovuz	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Turan Tovuz - Fenerbahçe	0:2 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
19.09.26	Turan Tovuz - Zira	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Turan Tovuz	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
09.03.26	Neftchi Baku - Turan Tovuz	0:1
28.11.25	Turan Tovuz - Neftchi Baku	0:0
29.08.25	Neftchi Baku - Turan Tovuz	0:1
10.05.25	Turan Tovuz - Neftchi Baku	1:2
10.03.25	Neftchi Baku - Turan Tovuz	1:1
21.12.24	Turan Tovuz - Neftchi Baku	1:1
03.08.24	Neftchi Baku - Turan Tovuz	0:0

Neftchi Baku - Turan Tovuz