Match Info

Premier League - Round 23

Date: 9 March 2026, Monday

Location: Palms Sports Arena (Baku)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Neftchi Baku		Turan Tovuz

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.88	3.1
	2.09	3	3.88
	2.09	3.05	3.56	Watch
	2.63	2.7	2.75
	2.6	2.77	2.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.28)	2.88 ↓ (3.08)	3.2 ↑ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Neftchi Baku
39.4%

Draw
31.9%

Turan Tovuz
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

29.5%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

28.8%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neftchi Baku has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Turan Tovuz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Turan Tovuz than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Neftchi Baku - Turan Tovuz Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Neftchi will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Neftchi (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Turan (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Neftchi (votes: 1 - 50%). Turan (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Piric K. (G) 15. Badalov E. 33. Breno Almeida 11. Faraj I. 5. Igor Ribeiro 8. Mahmudov E. (C) 18. Mathew I. 22. Ortiz L. 9. Sambou B. 70. Shtogrin A. 10. Vargas F.	41. Samok S. (G) 11. Guseynov A. 15. Hackman E. (C) 3. Henrique 32. Hurtado H. 90. Jo Batista 5. Miller R. 29. Ozobic F. 17. Sadykhov R. 23. Serrano A. 7. Silva J.
Substitutes
45. Aboubakar V. 1. Balayev E. (G) 4. Camalov E. 27. Costin C. 28. Curci A. 6. D'Almeida S. 81. Hasanov M. (G) 17. Khachayev M. 14. Kuc E. 47. Mammadov M. 23. Rezabala J. 7. Safarov E.	4. Aliyev S. 1. Baklov O. (G) 9. Ginnelly J. 13. Haciyev M. (G) 88. Hadzhiyev F. 2. Mampassi M. 10. Nacafov K. 19. Olabe R. 8. Tavares D. 99. Wadji I. 6. Yusifli F.
Coaches
Vernidub Y.	Berdyev K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Mathew I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ortiz L. ↓, Khachayev M. ↑,
46', Ozobic F. 🟨,
56', 0 - 1, Jo Batista ⚽, Silva J. (A),
60', Mahmudov E. ↓, Safarov E. ↑,
60', Breno Almeida ↓, Mammadov M. ↑,
68', Sambou B. ↓, Aboubakar V. ↑,
80', Ozobic F. ↓, Olabe R. ↑,
86', Guseynov A. ↓, Wadji I. ↑,
87', Sadykhov R. ↓, Yusifli F. ↑,
90+5', Silva J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Neftchi won 1.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Turan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Neftchi might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Neftchi won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 24:15. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Neftchi won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:5. (average 1.7:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Neftci Baku	6	5	0	1	18:5	13	15
4	Turan Tovuz	6	3	2	1	6:4	2	11

Last Results with these Odds

Turan Tovuz - the odds 2.96 are the expected chance of winning is 30.64%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League
28.02.26	Shamakhi - Neftchi Baku	2:2 ✺
15.02.26	Kapaz - Neftchi Baku	1:3 ✺
10.02.26	Neftchi Baku - Gabala	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Neftchi Baku	0:4 ✺
23.01.26	Neftchi Baku - Zira	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWWWT
- Turan Tovuz
Azerbaijan Cup
05.03.26	Kapaz - Turan Tovuz	0:2 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
01.03.26	Turan Tovuz - İmişli	0:0 ✺
24.02.26	Gabala - Turan Tovuz	0:3 ✺
20.02.26	Turan Tovuz - Zira	2:0 ✺
16.02.26	Shamakhi - Turan Tovuz	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
28.11.25	Turan Tovuz - Neftchi Baku	0:0
29.08.25	Neftchi Baku - Turan Tovuz	0:1
10.05.25	Turan Tovuz - Neftchi Baku	1:2
10.03.25	Neftchi Baku - Turan Tovuz	1:1
21.12.24	Turan Tovuz - Neftchi Baku	1:1
03.08.24	Neftchi Baku - Turan Tovuz	0:0
28.04.24	Neftchi Baku - Turan Tovuz	3:0

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