Match Info

AFC Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 14 September 2026, Monday

Location: Istiqlol Stadium (Fergana)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Georgia	Silk Sport 2
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	GTV, K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	Astro Go, Sooka
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Ukraine	Sport 2
Usa	SportsEngine Play
International	Sport 2 Baltic


	Neftchi Fargona		Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.53	4.00	5.75
	1.47	4.05	6.2	Watch
	1.51	4.15	6.68
	1.54	3.95	6.25	Watch
	1.45	3.7	5.5
	1.54	4.21	6.09	Watch
	1.48	4.1	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.68)	4.02 ↑ (3.6)	6.1 ↑ (5.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Neftchi Fargona
61.7%

Draw
23.1%

Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya
15.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.5%

25.9%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

24.7%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neftchi Fargona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Neftchi Fargona's performance.

Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neftchi Fargona than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Neftchi Fargona - Al Quwa Al Jawiya Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5, 1st Half - over (6.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 2nd Half - over (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Neftchi Fargona will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ergashev B. (G) 52. Kouao K. 15. Abduganiyev N. 4. Ciger B. 34. Sayfiev F. (C) 31. Yan Sasse 5. Alibaev I. 77. Ratinho 7. Ismoilov A. 18. Perica S. 22. Odilov A.	95. Saleh M. (G) 2. Hanoon R. 5. Al Rosan S. 3. Mousa M. 6. Jeahze M. 29. Kisinda T. 25. Abdulameer S. (C) 73. Saad A. 24. Fawzi A. 8. Hatem A. H. 10. Jawad M.
Substitutes
30. Fomin R. 88. Forss M. 9. Giyosov K. 20. Gofurov A. 32. Marusic Z. 3. Michel 17. Muratov A. 27. Sarsenbaev N. 16. Shokirov I. (G) 71. Toshmirzaev B. 45. Turaev A. (G) 21. Ubaydullaev M.	17. Adil A. 90. Ali Hassan K. 23. Andrade T. 31. Dalfi M. R. (G) 9. Jouini H. 11. Mohammad M. 13. Muhsen M. 22. Nsaif Z. (G) 16. Orkuma M. 21. Sadeeq R. 77. Sami M.
Coaches
Ismoilov I.	Al Jabal F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ismoilov A. ↓, Toshmirzaev B. ↑,
56', Yan Sasse ↓, Marusic Z. ↑,
59', Al Rosan S. 🟨,
59', Perica S. 🟨,
63', Hatem A. H. ↓, Muhsen M. ↑,
63', Kisinda T. ↓, Mohammad M. ↑,
63', Mousa M. 🟨,
72', Perica S. ↓, Giyosov K. ↑,
72', Saad A. ↓, Orkuma M. ↑,
79', Abduganiyev N. 🟨,
81', Toshmirzaev B. 🟨,
83', Jawad M. ↓, Jouini H. ↑,
83', 1 - 0, Marusic Z. ⚽, Kouao K. (A),
84', Marusic Z. 🟨,
88', Odilov A. ↓, Gofurov A. ↑,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Neftchi Fargona may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Neftchi Fargona is the team to beat.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Outrights of AFC Champions League for now

Neftchi Fargona: 1.47% Al Quwa Al Jawiya: 0.59%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Neftchi Fargona
Uzbek League
09.09.26	Neftchi Fargona - Surkhon Termez	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Nasaf Qarshi - Neftchi Fargona	6:2 ✺
Uzbek Cup
29.08.26	Neftchi Fargona - Pakhtakor	1:0 ✺
Uzbek League
18.08.26	Buxoro - Neftchi Fargona	4:1 ✺
13.08.26	Andijan - Neftchi Fargona	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLWLW
- Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya
Iraqi Premier League
10.09.26	Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya - Al-Zawraa	0:1 ✺
07.09.26	Karbala - Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya	2:3 ✺
03.09.26	Duhok - Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya - Naft Maysan	1:1 ✺
25.08.26	Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya - Ghaz Al Shamal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LWLTT

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