Match Info

Premier League - Round 13

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Negele Arsi Ketema		Mechal

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.7	2.3
	3.2	2.62	2.38
	3.28	2.72	2.41	Watch
	3.2	2.5	2.4
	3.22	2.68	2.4
	3.33	2.66	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↓ (3.3)	2.65 ↓ (2.7)	2.38 ↓ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Negele Arsi Ketema
28%

Draw
34.1%

Mechal
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

34.1%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

34.2%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Negele Arsi Ketema has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Mechal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Negele Arsi Ketema than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mechal than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Negele Arsi Ketema - Mechal Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Tefera D. ⚽,
31', 2 - 0, Markos A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 6 and 8)

Negele Arsi Ketema is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mechal's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Negele Arsi Ketema may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mechal is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Negele Arsi Ketema	38	15	15	8	37:30	7	60
3	Mechal	38	14	15	9	44:31	13	57

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Negele Arsi Ketema
Ethiopian Premier League
30.12.25	Dire Dawa City - Negele Arsi Ketema	0:3 ✺
24.12.25	Negele Arsi Ketema - Welwalo Adigrat	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Fasil Kenema - Negele Arsi Ketema	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Hadiya Hossana - Negele Arsi Ketema	1:2 ✺
02.12.25	Negele Arsi Ketema - Sheger Ketema	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWLWT
- Mechal SC
Ethiopian Premier League
31.12.25	Mechal - Ethiopia Bunna	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Adama City - Mechal	1:3 ✺
21.12.25	Mechal - Ethio Electric	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Hawassa City - Mechal	1:1 ✺
02.12.25	Mechal - Dire Dawa City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWTTT

Negele Arsi Ketema - Mechal: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide