Match Info

Premier League - Round 11

Date: 24 December 2025, Wednesday


	Negele Arsi Ketema		Welwalo Adigrat

	1	X	2
	2.78	2.88	2.48
	2.46	2.88	3.01	Watch
	2.8	2.8	2.45
	3.26	2.94	2.37	Watch
	3.4	3	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↑ (1.86)	2.9 ↓ (3.18)	2.49 ↓ (4.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Negele Arsi Ketema
31.3%

Draw
31.8%

Welwalo Adigrat
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.5%

29%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

28.3%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Negele Arsi Ketema has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Negele Arsi Ketema's form might have worsened.

Welwalo Adigrat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Welwalo Adigrat's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Negele Arsi Ketema than the current prediction. (+19.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Negele Arsi Ketema, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Welwalo Adigrat than the current prediction. (-15.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Welwalo Adigrat, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	28.6%	28.6%

Negele Arsi Ketema - Welwalo Adigrat Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Negele Arsi Ketema will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Welwalo Adigrat will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Wero A. ⚽,
45+5', Tesfaye G. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Negele Arsi Ketema is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Welwalo Adigrat's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Negele Arsi Ketema is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Negele Arsi Ketema
Ethiopian Premier League
20.12.25	Fasil Kenema - Negele Arsi Ketema	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Hadiya Hossana - Negele Arsi Ketema	1:2 ✺
02.12.25	Negele Arsi Ketema - Sheger Ketema	2:2 ✺
25.11.25	Ethiopian Medhin - Negele Arsi Ketema	0:1 ✺
20.11.25	Negele Arsi Ketema - Adama City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.9 LWTWW
- Welwalo Adigrat University FC
Ethiopian Premier League
20.12.25	Welwalo Adigrat - Ethiopia Bunna	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Ethiopia Nigd Bank - Welwalo Adigrat	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Welwalo Adigrat - Mekelle 70 Enderta	1:0 ✺
25.11.25	Welayta Dicha - Welwalo Adigrat	2:1 ✺
21.11.25	Welwalo Adigrat - Hawassa City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.7 TWWLL

Negele Arsi Ketema - Welwalo Adigrat: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide