Match Info

NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA: LEAGUES CUP - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 3 August 2023, Thursday

Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough)


	New England Revolution		Atlas

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.5	3.3	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.1
	2.2	3.4	3.2
	2.23	3.6	3.4
				Watch
	2.14	3.5	3.28	Watch
	2.17	3.25	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (3.3)	3.43 ↑ (3.4)	3.21 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New England Revolution
43.2%

Draw
27.5%

Atlas
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.8%

27.9%

43.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.5%

27.6%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New England Revolution has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in New England Revolution's performance.

Atlas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New England Revolution than the current prediction. (-14.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with New England Revolution that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlas than the current prediction. (+14.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	20%	10%

New England Revolution - Atlas Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. New England will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Atlas will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for New England: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
36. Edwards E. (G) 15. Bye B. 88. Farrell A. 2. Romney D. 24. Jones D. 29. Buck N. 28. Kaye M. 8. Polster M. 10. Gil C. (C) 9. Vrioni G. 7. Bou G.	12. Vargas C. (G) 4. Abella J. 2. Nervo H. 5. Santamaria A. 14. Reyes L. 17. Martinez J. 26. Rocha A. 8. Garcia M. E. 30. Aguirre E. 23. Caicedo J. 209. Guzman Rodriguez J. L.
Substitutes
47. Bajraktarevic E. 18. Boateng E. 23. Gil I. 3. Gonzalez O. 14. Harkes I. 98. Jackson J. (G) 26. McNamara T. 12. Rennicks J. 72. Rivera Brown D. E. 34. Spaulding R. 44. Sweat B. 60. Weinstein M. (G)	13. Aguirre G. 181. Arce E. (G) 3. Dominguez I. 1. Hernandez J. (G) 10. Lozano B. 32. Lozano J. 11. Manotas M. 185. Rios De Alba V. H. 21. Robles C. 24. Trejo C. 6. Zaldivar E. 20. Zapata J.
Coaches
Arena B.	Mora B.

Preview

New England is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Atlas is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Atlas could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

New England will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in New England: Borrero D. (Knee Injury) Kessler H. (Muscle Injury) Maciel L. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Makoun C. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New England Revolution
CONCACAF League Cup
26.07.23	Atlético San Luis - New England Revolution	1:5 ✺
22.07.23	New York Red Bulls - New England Revolution	0:0 ✺
MLS
15.07.23	New England Revolution - DC United	4:0 ✺
12.07.23	New England Revolution - Atlanta United	2:1 ✺
08.07.23	New York Red Bulls - New England Revolution	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTWWL
- Club Atlas
CONCACAF League Cup
30.07.23	Atlas - Toronto FC	1:0 ✺
23.07.23	New York City - Atlas	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
19.07.23	Atlas - Sporting de Gijón	1:1 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
13.07.23	Santos Laguna - Atlas	0:0 ✺
09.07.23	Monterrey - Atlas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWTTL

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