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Current Win Probability
New York Red Bulls 68.8%
Draw 19.7%
Portland Timbers 11.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
53.9%
24.5%
21.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
54%
24.5%
21.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
New York Red Bulls has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in New York Red Bulls's performance.
Portland Timbers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Portland Timbers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for New York Red Bulls than the current prediction. (-14.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with New York Red Bulls that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portland Timbers than the current prediction. (+10.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Portland Timbers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
73.3%
26.7%
0%
New York Red Bulls - Portland Timbers Predictions
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. NY Red Bulls will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Confidence interval (95%) for NY Red Bulls: 50.9% – 95.7%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Preview
One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 10).
NY Red Bulls has the most likely position - 1 (24.29%), has project points - 59, has currently - 17, has a good chance of playoffs (92%), has a chance of first-round bye (24%), has a small chance of supporters shield (11%), has a small chance of win league (11%).
Portland has the most likely position - 11 (11.15%), has project points - 42, has currently - 11, has a chance of playoffs (30%), has a very small chance of first-round bye (<1%), has a very small chance of supporters shield (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
This event has quality42, small importance16, small match rating29. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches NY Red Bulls won 2.
NY Red Bulls is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Recent matches Portland is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
In this match NY Red Bulls is certain favorite.
Last 9 head-to-head matches NY Red Bulls won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15-13.
Including matches at home between the teams NY Red Bulls won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-8.
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