Match Info

MLS

Date: 14 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Geodis Park (Nashville, TN)

Referee: De Oliveira M. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	Nashville SC		New York Red Bulls

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.9	3.75	Watch
	1.88	3.6	3.8
	1.92	3.75	4	Watch
	1.96	3.8	3.95
	1.89	3.78	3.91	Watch
	1.95	3.5	3.7
	1.88	3.8	3.89	Watch
	1.92	3.75	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.1)	3.74 ↑ (3.74)	3.88 ↑ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nashville SC
49.9%

Draw
25.5%

New York Red Bulls
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

25.4%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

25.6%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nashville SC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

New York Red Bulls has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nashville SC than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for New York Red Bulls than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Nashville SC - New York Red Bulls Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Nashville will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nashville: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nashville (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Nashville (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - NY Red Bulls (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Nashville (votes: 2 - 66.7%). NY Red Bulls (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Willis J. (G) 31. Najar A. 5. Maher J. 4. Palacios J. 2. Lovitz D. 20. Tagseth E. 8. Yazbek P. 19. Muyl A. 10. Mukhtar H. (C) 9. Surridge S. 14. Shaffelburg J.	31. Carlos Coronel (G) 17. Harper C. 15. Nealis S. 3. Eile N. 5. Valencia O. 20. Carballo F. 75. Edelman D. 19. Carmona W. 10. Forsberg E. 37. Sofo M. 13. Choupo-Moting E. M.
Substitutes
6. Acosta B. 33. Applewhite C. 22. Bauer J. 7. Brugman G. 12. Bunbury T. 28. Meyer W. 24. Perez J. 37. Qasem A. 99. Schwake B. (G)	7. Bogacz W. 6. Duncan K. 44. Edwards R. 22. Gjengaar D. 42. Hack A. 16. Hall J. 1. Marcucci A. (G) 26. Parker T. 8. Stroud P.
Coaches
Callaghan B.	Schwarz S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', 1 - 0, Yazbek P. ⚽, Surridge S. (A),
36', Valencia O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Valencia O. ↓, Edwards R. ↑,
56', 1 - 1, Choupo-Moting E. M. ⚽, Harper C. (A),
63', 2 - 1, Mukhtar H. ⚽, Muyl A. (A),
64', Najar A. ↓, Bauer J. ↑,
65', Muyl A. ↓, Qasem A. ↑,
73', Harper C. 🟨,
74', Sofo M. ↓, Stroud P. ↑,
74', Edelman D. ↓, Hack A. ↑,
74', Carmona W. ↓, Hall J. ↑,
78', Shaffelburg J. ↓, Applewhite C. ↑,
79', Qasem A. 🟨,
82', Carballo F. ↓, Bogacz W. ↑,
83', Edwards R. 🟨,
86', Surridge S. 🟨,
89', Yazbek P. ↓, Acosta B. ↑,
90', Mukhtar H. ↓, Bunbury T. ↑,
90+5', Lovitz D. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nashville won 0.

Nashville is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

NY Red Bulls has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Nashville could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Nashville: Boyd T. (Knee Injury) Ekk M. (Knee Injury) Gaines J. (Thigh Injury) Zimmerman W. (Concussion)

There will not play in NY Red Bulls: Mitchell R. (Knee Injury) Morales M. (Thigh Injury) Morgan L. (Knee Injury) Nealis D. (Hamstring Injury) Ngoma S. (Back Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Nashville won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Nashville won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nashville SC
MLS
10.05.25	Nashville SC - Charlotte	2:1 ✺
US Open Cup
06.05.25	Nashville SC - Chattanooga Red Wolves	1:0 ✺
MLS
03.05.25	Atlanta United - Nashville SC	1:1 ✺
26.04.25	Nashville SC - Chicago Fire	7:2 ✺
19.04.25	Seattle Sounders - Nashville SC	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWTWL
- New York Red Bulls
MLS
10.05.25	New York Red Bulls - Los Angeles Galaxy	7:0 ✺
US Open Cup
06.05.25	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - New York Red Bulls	1:4 ✺
MLS
03.05.25	Inter Miami - New York Red Bulls	4:1 ✺
26.04.25	New York Red Bulls - CF Montréal	1:0 ✺
19.04.25	New York Red Bulls - DC United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
01.03.25	New York Red Bulls - Nashville SC	2:0
15.06.24	New York Red Bulls - Nashville SC	0:0
25.02.24	Nashville SC - New York Red Bulls	0:0
21.10.23	Nashville SC - New York Red Bulls	0:1
04.03.23	New York Red Bulls - Nashville SC	0:0
07.11.21	Nashville SC - New York Red Bulls	1:1
18.06.21	New York Red Bulls - Nashville SC	2:0

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