Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 1

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Allianz Riviera (Nice)

Referee: Leonard T. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, TV5 Monde Africa, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TV5 Monde Asia, TV5 Monde Pacifique
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	Viaplay
Europe	TV5 Monde Europe
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4, ART Sport 3
Mexico	Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	Cignal Play
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV3
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-america	TV5 Monde Amerique Latine
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1 Pass, Prime Video Sportsbar
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, TV5 Monde
Venezuela	Disney+


	Nice		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2.15	3.4	3.3
	2.12	3.35	3.55
	2.2	3.36	3.75
	1.73	3.79	4.65	Watch
	2.1	3.25	3.4
	2.19	3.45	3.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↑ (1.73)	3.41 ↓ (3.79)	3.71 ↓ (4.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nice
46%

Draw
28.1%

Toulouse
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.7%

25%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.8%

25%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nice has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nice's form might have worsened.

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Toulouse's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nice than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nice, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toulouse, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.5%	17.6%	5.9%

Nice - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Nice will win (votes: 24 - 75%). Toulouse will win (votes: 2 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nice: 60% – 90%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Nice (2.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nice will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Nice (votes: 13 - 81.3%). Toulouse (votes: 1 - 6.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
80. Diouf Y. (G) 33. Mendy A. 28. Juma Bah A. 37. Peprah K. 92. Clauss J. 20. Louchet T. 6. Boudaoui H. 26. Bard M. (C) 19. Bouanani B. 9. Moffi T. 21. Jansson I.	1. Restes G. (G) 24. Methalie D. 4. Cresswell C. 3. McKenzie M. 19. Sidibe D. (C) 77. Sauer M. 29. Canvot J. 15. Donnum A. 31. Edjouma N. 9. Magri F. 10. Gboho Y.
Substitutes
99. Abdul Samed S. 23. Bernardeau G. 7. Boga J. 14. Brahimi B. 39. Coulibaly D. 10. Diop S. 31. Dupe M. (G) 36. Koutoune H. 49. Nguene B.	21. Faty E. 42. Garondo T. 16. Haug K. (G) 11. Hidalgo S. 12. Kamanzi W. 35. Koumbassa S. 2. Nicolaisen R. 39. Saka M. 45. Vossah A.
Coaches
Haise F.	Martinez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Canvot J. 🟨,
51', Methalie D. 🟨,
65', Sauer M. 🟨,
68', Edjouma N. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
68', Sauer M. ↓, Vossah A. ↑,
75', Magri F. ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
76', Moffi T. ↓, Nguene B. ↑,
76', Bouanani B. ↓, Diop S. ↑,
76', Jansson I. ↓, Boga J. ↑,
77', Louchet T. ↓, Abdul Samed S. ↑,
79', Nguene B. 🟨,
82', Methalie D. ↓, Nicolaisen R. ↑,
89', 0 - 1, Sidibe D. ⚽, Hidalgo S. (A),
90+1', Peprah K. ↓, Brahimi B. ↑,
90+4', Boudaoui H. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nice won 1.

Nice has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Toulouse is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Nice might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Nice: Abdelmonem M. (Knee Injury) Cho M. (Injury) Dante (Knee Injury) Ndayishimiye Y. (Knee Injury) Ndombele T. (Groin Injury) Sanson M. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Casseres C. (Yellow Cards) Francis A. (Injury) Messali R. (Inactive) Schmidt N. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nice won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 24:21. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Nice won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 1.2:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Nice - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 54.69%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Toulouse - the odds 4.65 are the expected chance of winning is 20.35%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OGC Nice
UEFA Champions League
12.08.25	Benfica - Nice	2:0 ✺
06.08.25	Nice - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
30.07.25	Nice - Sheffield United	3:2 ✺
26.07.25	St. Pauli - Nice	2:0 ✺
26.07.25	Feyenoord - Nice	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLWLW
- Toulouse FC
Club Friendly
10.08.25	Toulouse - Sevilla	1:1 ✺
02.08.25	Stuttgart - Toulouse	4:0 ✺
30.07.25	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Toulouse	2:1 ✺
26.07.25	RB Leipzig - Toulouse	7:0 ✺
18.07.25	Toulouse - Queens Park Rangers	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
02.02.25	Toulouse - Nice	1:1
25.08.24	Nice - Toulouse	1:1
03.03.24	Toulouse - Nice	2:1
26.11.23	Nice - Toulouse	1:0
21.05.23	Nice - Toulouse	0:0
07.08.22	Toulouse - Nice	1:1
15.02.20	Toulouse - Nice	0:2

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