Match Info

Premier League - Round 9

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Mordovia Arena (Saransk)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q League Asia, Q Sport Asia
Belarus	Belarus 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5, Arena Sport 6
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 2


	Nizhny Novgorod		Akhmat Grozny

	1	X	2
	3.84	3.43	2.06
	3.87	3.47	2.06	Watch
	3.55	3.35	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.75 ↑ (3.3)	3.42 ↓ (3.5)	2.05 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nizhny Novgorod
25.4%

Draw
27.9%

Akhmat Grozny
46.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

26.6%

45.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

26.1%

46.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nizhny Novgorod has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Akhmat Grozny has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nizhny Novgorod than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Akhmat Grozny than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Nizhny Novgorod - Akhmat Grozny Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Nizhny Novgorod (2.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nizhny Novgorod (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Medvedev N. (G) 70. Shnaptsev M. 22. Kakkoev N. 25. Karic S. 32. Pigas V. 77. Ivlev A. 8. Maiga M. (C) 29. Ticic L. 40. Olusegun O. 20. Boselli J. 88. Lesovoy D.	88. Shelia G. (G) 81. Sidorov M. 90. Ndong O. 75. Ghandri N. 8. Bogosavac M. 11. Silva I. 4. Ibishev T. 20. Samorodov M. 17. Cacintura E. 7. Sadulaev L. (C) 77. Melkadze G.
Substitutes
2. Aleksandrov V. 23. Castillo J. 21. Cephas R. 19. Ermakov N. 81. Generalov N. (G) 27. Grulev V. 78. Kalinski N. 3. Koledin Y. 1. Lukyanov V. (G) 17. Smelov E. 9. Vecino T.	99. El Mahraoui A. 37. Gadio P. 32. Gaibov I. 42. Keliano M. 13. Konate M. 72. Magomedov Y. (G) 9. Mansilla B. 22. Mohazabieh M. 55. Todorovic D. 1. Ulyanov V. (G) 40. Utsiev R. 10. Zhemaletdinov R.
Coaches
Shpilevski A.	Cherchesov S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', Kakkoev N. 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Ndong O. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Shnaptsev M. ↓, Smelov E. ↑,
46', Ticic L. ↓, Koledin Y. ↑,
46', Ivlev A. ↓, Ermakov N. ↑,
47', Karic S. 🟨,
53', Karic S. ↓, Aleksandrov V. ↑,
63', Lesovoy D. ↓, Cephas R. ↑,
65', Samorodov M. ↓, Zhemaletdinov R. ↑,
66', Melkadze G. 🟨,
69', 1 - 1, Boselli J. ⚽,
72', Ibishev T. ↓, Keliano M. ↑,
90', Sadulaev L. ↓, El Mahraoui A. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 2, Keliano M. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pari NN won 2.

Pari NN is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Akhmat has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Pari NN may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Akhmat might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Pari NN: Ektov A. (Knee Injury) Krashevskiy Y. (Red Card) Tsarukyan V. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Akhmat: Ibishev T. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Pari NN won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:18. (average 1.5:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Pari NN won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:5. (average 1.4:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Nizhny Novgorod - the odds 3.3 are the expected chance of winning is 28.21%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Nizhny Novgorod
Russian Cup
16.09.25	Nizhny Novgorod - Dynamo Makhachkala	1:2 ✺
Russian Premier League
13.09.25	Nizhny Novgorod - Orenburg	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Zenit - Nizhny Novgorod	2:0 ✺
Russian Cup
26.08.25	Spartak Moscow - Nizhny Novgorod	4:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
23.08.25	Dynamo Moscow - Nizhny Novgorod	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWLLL
- FC Akhmat Grozny
Russian Cup
17.09.25	Zenit - Akhmat Grozny	2:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
13.09.25	Akhmat Grozny - Lokomotiv Moscow	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Rostov - Akhmat Grozny	1:1 ✺
Russian Cup
26.08.25	Akhmat Grozny - Rubin Kazan	2:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
22.08.25	Orenburg - Akhmat Grozny	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
26.04.25	Nizhny Novgorod - Akhmat Grozny	1:0
03.11.24	Akhmat Grozny - Nizhny Novgorod	0:2
Russian Cup
19.09.24	Nizhny Novgorod - Akhmat Grozny	1:2
31.07.24	Akhmat Grozny - Nizhny Novgorod	4:1
Russian Premier League
28.04.24	Akhmat Grozny - Nizhny Novgorod	5:1
14.08.23	Nizhny Novgorod - Akhmat Grozny	2:0
11.11.22	Nizhny Novgorod - Akhmat Grozny	3:2

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