Match Info

Russian Cup - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 26 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: Akhmat-Arena (Groznyj)

Where to Watch on TV:


Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV


	Akhmat Grozny		Rubin Kazan

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.64	4.42
	1.97	3.73	4.08	Watch
	2.4	3.34	2.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.73)	3.57 ↑ (3.49)	3.83 ↑ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Akhmat Grozny
47.1%

Draw
27.4%

Rubin Kazan
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

28.1%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

29.2%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Akhmat Grozny has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Akhmat Grozny's performance.

Rubin Kazan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rubin Kazan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Akhmat Grozny than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Akhmat Grozny that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rubin Kazan than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rubin Kazan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Akhmat Grozny - Rubin Kazan Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Akhmat will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Akhmat (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH 0 - Akhmat (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Rubin (2.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Akhmat (votes: 3 - 75%). Rubin (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ulyanov V. (G) 40. Utsiev R. 90. Ndong O. 22. Mohazabieh M. 55. Todorovic D. 17. Cacintura E. 11. Silva I. 4. Ibishev T. 9. Mansilla B. 77. Melkadze G. 7. Sadulaev L. (C)	25. Nigmatullin A. (G) 2. Teslenko E. 27. Gritsaenko A. 24. Cumic N. 51. Rozhkov I. 23. Bezrukov R. 21. Zotov A. 19. Ivanov O. (C) 77. Jukic A. 99. Shabanhaxhaj D. 87. Mukba E.
Substitutes
8. Bogosavac M. 70. Gadzhiev A. 32. Gaibov I. 13. Konate M. 72. Magomedov Y. (G) 20. Samorodov M. 88. Shelia G. (G) 81. Sidorov M. 14. Talal A. 39. Taramov D. 71. Yakuev M.	18. Apshatsev M. 10. Daku M. 39. Ezhov I. (G) 22. Hodza V. 6. Iwu U. 8. Jocic B. 70. Kabutov D. 9. Lomovitskiy A. 38. Staver E. (G) 96. Vasiljev N. 5. Vujacic I.
Coaches
Cherchesov S.	Rakhimov R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Sadulaev L. ⚽, Utsiev R. (A),
13', Zotov A. 🟨,
27', 2 - 0, Melkadze G. ⚽, Todorovic D. (A),
36', Teslenko E. ↓, Vujacic I. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Shabanhaxhaj D. ↓, Daku M. ↑,
46', Zotov A. ↓, Iwu U. ↑,
61', Mansilla B. ↓, Samorodov M. ↑,
61', Melkadze G. ↓, Konate M. ↑,
62', Iwu U. 🟨,
66', Rozhkov I. ↓, Kabutov D. ↑,
70', Kabutov D. 🟨,
72', Mukba E. ↓, Hodza V. ↑,
76', Sadulaev L. ↓, Gadzhiev A. ↑,
83', Silva I. 🟨,
87', Cacintura E. ↓, Gaibov I. ↑,
90+3', Ndong O. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Akhmat won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Akhmat may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Akhmat could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Akhmat won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 19:23. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Akhmat won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Akhmat Grozny
Russian Premier League
22.08.25	Orenburg - Akhmat Grozny	2:2 ✺
16.08.25	Akhmat Grozny - Krylya Sovetov	3:1 ✺
Russian Cup
13.08.25	Orenburg - Akhmat Grozny	2:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
09.08.25	Akhmat Grozny - Zenit	1:0 ✺
03.08.25	Dynamo Makhachkala - Akhmat Grozny	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 TWLWL
- Rubin Kazan
Russian Premier League
23.08.25	Rubin Kazan - Spartak Moscow	0:2 ✺
17.08.25	Rubin Kazan - Rostov	1:0 ✺
Russian Cup
12.08.25	Zenit - Rubin Kazan	3:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
09.08.25	CSKA Moscow - Rubin Kazan	5:1 ✺
04.08.25	Rubin Kazan - Sochi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
20.07.25	Akhmat Grozny - Rubin Kazan	0:2
01.03.25	Akhmat Grozny - Rubin Kazan	2:1
05.10.24	Rubin Kazan - Akhmat Grozny	2:0
31.03.24	Rubin Kazan - Akhmat Grozny	2:1
08.10.23	Akhmat Grozny - Rubin Kazan	0:1
Club Friendly
16.02.23	Rubin Kazan - Akhmat Grozny	1:1
Russian Premier League
07.03.22	Akhmat Grozny - Rubin Kazan	1:2

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