Match Info

FNL - Round 16

Date: 30 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Sovcombank Arena (Nizhny Novgorod) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Tsurkov D. S. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Belarus	20:15	Sport TV
Russia	20:15	MATCH! Planeta, Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru


	Nizhny Novgorod		Arsenal Tula

	1	X	2
	1.4	5.01	7.3
	1.38	4.95	7.2
	1.39	4.76	7.23	Watch
	1.37	4.5	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.42)	4.81 ↑ (4.42)	7.03 ↓ (7.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nizhny Novgorod
67.3%

Draw
19.4%

Arsenal Tula
13.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

65.7%

21.1%

13.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70%

18.5%

11.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nizhny Novgorod has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Arsenal Tula has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nizhny Novgorod than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Nizhny Novgorod - Arsenal Tula Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Nizhny Novgorod (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nizhny Novgorod (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Imamov I. (G) 3. Koledin Y. 94. Timofeev A. 2. Aleksandrov V. 66. Gudkov Y. 19. Ermakov N. 78. Kalinski N. (C) 11. Popolitov G. 18. Sokolov A. 9. Sarveli V. 27. Grulev V.	42. Melikhov A. (G) 45. Karmaev N. 4. Penchikov D. 24. Gotsuk K. (C) 82. Alekhin A. 77. Plotnikov D. 17. Gorbunov I. 14. Brnovic M. 25. Biryukov A. 11. Magomedov R. 8. Shamkin D.
Substitutes
7. Bober I. 15. Ektov A. 4. Evgenyev R. 81. Generalov N. (G) 91. Ignatenko V. 22. Kakkoev N. 25. Karic S. 72. Komissarov T. 93. Lapinsky S. 8. Maiga M. 17. Shilnikov G. 80. Tsarukyan V.	31. Bolshakov K. 9. Davidyan D. 35. Enin I. 19. Glushkov N. 44. Isaenko O. 5. Krashevskiy Y. 36. Levashov M. (G) 23. Melekestsev T. 21. Razdorskikh N. 7. Reyes E. 22. Uridia G. 10. Zhigulev I.
Coaches
Garanin V.	Alenichev D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Sokolov A. ⚽,
23', 2 - 0, Popolitov G. ⚽,
31', Plotnikov D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Biryukov A. ↓, Melekestsev T. ↑,
46', Plotnikov D. ↓, Reyes E. ↑,
66', Grulev V. ↓, Ignatenko V. ↑,
66', Ermakov N. ↓, Maiga M. ↑,
68', Alekhin A. ↓, Bolshakov K. ↑,
72', 3 - 0, Sarveli V. (Penalty Awarded),
73', Magomedov R. ↓, Uridia G. ↑,
75', Popolitov G. ↓, Komissarov T. ↑,
75', Sarveli V. ↓, Bober I. ↑,
77', 4 - 0, Ignatenko V. ⚽,
78', Gotsuk K. 🟨,
79', Gorbunov I. ↓, Zhigulev I. ↑,
80', Sokolov A. ↓, Tsarukyan V. ↑,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 1st in the Promotion - Premier League and 10th).

Nizhny Novgorod has enjoyed a winning run and is in top form (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Arsenal has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

In this match, Nizhny Novgorod enters as the overwhelming favorite.

Our forecast points to a victory for Nizhny Novgorod in today's match, at odds of 1.46.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Nizhny Novgorod has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:7 (averaging 1.8:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Nizhny Novgorod against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 3:5 goals (averaging 1.5:2.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Pari NN	16	14	1	1	48:15	33	43
10	Arsenal Tula	16	5	4	7	19:33	-14	19

Outrights of Russian FNL for now

Arsenal Tula: 0.8%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Nizhny Novgorod
Russian FNL
24.10.26	Ufa - Nizhny Novgorod	0:1 ✺
18.10.26	Ural - Nizhny Novgorod	1:2 ✺
Russian Cup
14.10.26	Nizhny Novgorod - Shinnik	4:0 ✺
Russian FNL
10.10.26	Nizhny Novgorod - Yenisey Krasnoyarsk	5:0 ✺
17.09.26	Nizhny Novgorod - Leningradets	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWWWW
- Arsenal Tula
Russian FNL
24.10.26	Arsenal Tula - KAMAZ	4:3 ✺
17.10.26	Ufa - Arsenal Tula	2:0 ✺
09.10.26	Arsenal Tula - Spartak Kostroma	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
04.10.26	CSKA Moscow - Arsenal Tula	3:1 ✺
Russian FNL
16.09.26	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Arsenal Tula	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
01.06.24	Arsenal Tula - Nizhny Novgorod	0:2
29.05.24	Nizhny Novgorod - Arsenal Tula	1:2
02.05.22	Arsenal Tula - Nizhny Novgorod	2:2
19.09.21	Nizhny Novgorod - Arsenal Tula	2:3

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