Probabilities (fivethirtyeight.com)
| team | position | project points | now | relegated | qualify for ucl | win league |
| Zenit | 1 (100%) | 65 | 65 | 0% | 100% | 100% |
| Sochi | 2 (100%) | 56 | 56 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Dynamo Moscow | 3 (100%) | 53 | 53 | 0% | <1% | 0% |
| CSKA Moscow | 5 (100%) | 50 | 50 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Krasnodar | 4 (100%) | 50 | 50 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Lokomotiv Moscow | 6 (100%) | 48 | 48 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Akhmat Grozny | 7 (100%) | 42 | 42 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Krylya Sovetov | 8 (100%) | 41 | 41 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rostov | 9 (100%) | 38 | 38 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Spartak Moscow | 10 (100%) | 38 | 38 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Ural | 12 (100%) | 33 | 33 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Nizhny Novgorod | 11 (100%) | 33 | 33 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Khimki | 13 (100%) | 32 | 32 | 50% | 0% | 0% |
| Ufa | 14 (100%) | 30 | 30 | 50% | 0% | 0% |
| Rubin Kazan | 15 (100%) | 29 | 29 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Arsenal Tula | 16 (100%) | 23 | 23 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
