Match Info

League Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 27 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Pitchaya Stadium (Nong Bua Lam Phu)


	Nongbua Pitchaya		Chonburi

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	3.82	3.50	1.87	Watch
	4	3.5	1.67
	4.48	3.64	1.66
	4.25	3.8	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.14 ↑ (3.78)	3.61 ↑ (3.45)	1.71 ↓ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nongbua Pitchaya
21.9%

Draw
25.1%

Chonburi
53%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24%

26.3%

49.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.9%

26.4%

49.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nongbua Pitchaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Chonburi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nongbua Pitchaya than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chonburi than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Nongbua Pitchaya - Chonburi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
16', 1 - 0, Marom W. ⚽,
21', 1 - 1, Moraksa R. ⚽,
29', 1 - 2, Promsrikaew C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
60', 1 - 3, van Lingen O. (Penalty Awarded),
61', 1 - 4, Queven ⚽,
90+1', 1 - 5, Burapha Y. ⚽,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Chonburi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Chonburi is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Nongbua Pitchaya won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.8:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Nongbua Pitchaya won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nongbua Pitchaya FC
Thai FA Cup
20.12.25	Sukhothai - Nongbua Pitchaya	3:0 ✺
Thai League 2
13.12.25	Nongbua Pitchaya - Chiangmai United	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Khonkaen United - Nongbua Pitchaya	1:2 ✺
03.12.25	Nongbua Pitchaya - Nakhon Pathom United	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Pattaya United - Nongbua Pitchaya	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LWWWL
- Chonburi FC
Thai League 1
12.12.25	Chonburi - Kanchanaburi	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Muangthong United - Chonburi	2:3 ✺
29.11.25	Rayong FC - Chonburi	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Sukhothai - Chonburi	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Chonburi - Buriram United	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Thai League 1
26.02.23	Nongbua Pitchaya - Chonburi	2:1
02.10.22	Chonburi - Nongbua Pitchaya	2:1
15.01.22	Nongbua Pitchaya - Chonburi	3:2
18.09.21	Chonburi - Nongbua Pitchaya	3:1

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