Match Info

III Liga - Group II - Round 11

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday


	Noteć Czarnków		Flota Świnoujście

	1	X	2
	2.30	3.40	2.50
	2.22	3.35	2.65
	2.02	3.54	3
	2.29	3.54	2.67	Watch
	2	3.5	2.95
	2.3	4.08	2.68	Watch
	2.21	3.41	2.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.21)	3.55 ↑ (3.41)	2.72 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Noteć Czarnków
41.3%

Draw
25.5%

Flota Świnoujście
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

25.9%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

24.5%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Noteć Czarnków has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Flota Świnoujście has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Noteć Czarnków than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flota Świnoujście than the current prediction. (-1%)

Noteć Czarnków - Flota Świnoujście Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 10th and 8th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Noteć Czarnków won 2.

Both teams are currently going through a difficult patch of form.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Noteć Czarnków has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:9 (averaging 2.5:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Noteć Czarnków against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 7:4 goals (averaging 2.3:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Notec Czarnkow	11	5	1	5	18:15	3	16
10	Swinoujscie	11	4	2	5	15:20	-5	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MKS Noteć Czarnków
Polish Division 3 - Group II
26.09.26	Luzino - Noteć Czarnków	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Noteć Czarnków - Polonia Środa Wielkopolska	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Lech Poznań 2 - Noteć Czarnków	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Noteć Czarnków - Kluczevia Stargard	3:1 ✺
28.08.26	Wda Świecie - Noteć Czarnków	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LTLWL
- Flota Świnoujście
Polish Division 3 - Group II
26.09.26	Flota Świnoujście - Unia Swarzędz	0:2 ✺
19.09.26	Grom Nowy Staw - Flota Świnoujście	5:0 ✺
05.09.26	Lipno Stęszew - Flota Świnoujście	1:3 ✺
29.08.26	Flota Świnoujście - Błękitni Stargard Szczeciński	1:5 ✺
22.08.26	Chemik Bydgoszcz - Flota Świnoujście	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group II
25.03.26	Flota Świnoujście - Noteć Czarnków	2:4
02.08.25	Noteć Czarnków - Flota Świnoujście	1:1
29.03.25	Noteć Czarnków - Flota Świnoujście	4:0
31.08.24	Flota Świnoujście - Noteć Czarnków	2:1
20.04.24	Noteć Czarnków - Flota Świnoujście	2:3
23.09.23	Flota Świnoujście - Noteć Czarnków	1:3

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