Match Info

Carioca B1 - Round 11

Date: 8 November 2025, Saturday


	Nova Cidade		Friburguense

	1	X	2
	1.52	3.6	5.5
	1.52	3.95	4.88
	1.80	3.28	4.40	Watch
	1.49	3.54	6.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (2.02)	3.59 ↑ (3.1)	5.38 ↑ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nova Cidade
57.7%

Draw
25.4%

Friburguense
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

29.2%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

24.7%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nova Cidade has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nova Cidade's performance.

Friburguense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Friburguense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nova Cidade than the current prediction. (-19.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nova Cidade that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Friburguense than the current prediction. (+13.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Friburguense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Nova Cidade - Friburguense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 6 and 12 in the zone Relegation ~ Carioca B2).

Friburguense is Relegated to Carioca B2

Recent performances by Nova Cidade have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Friburguense is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Nova Cidade is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Nova Cidade won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Including home match between the teams, Nova Cidade won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Nova Cidade
Brazilian Carioca B1
05.11.25	Nova Cidade - Campo Grande	1:0 ✺
01.11.25	Duque de Caxias - Nova Cidade	2:2 ✺
25.10.25	Bonsucesso - Nova Cidade	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Nova Cidade - Artsul	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Nova Cidade - Petrópolis	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WTLTL
- Friburguense AC
Brazilian Carioca B1
05.11.25	Paduano - Friburguense	2:0 ✺
01.11.25	Friburguense - Niteroiense	0:1 ✺
25.10.25	São Cristóvão - Friburguense	3:1 ✺
18.10.25	Friburguense - Duque de Caxias	0:1 ✺
11.10.25	Campo Grande - Friburguense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Carioca B1
12.11.24	Nova Cidade - Friburguense	1:1

Nova Cidade - Friburguense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide