Match Info

BRAZIL: Carioca - Taca Rio - Semi-finals

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Janio Moraes (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, BandSports, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Usa	Fanatiz


	Nova Iguaçu		Madureira

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.5
	2.5	2.85	3.1	Watch
	2.63	2.89	3.25
	2.42	2.95	2.98	Watch
	2.18	3.04	3.39	Watch
	2.5	2.85	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (2.03)	2.95 ↓ (3.37)	3.22 ↓ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nova Iguaçu
39.1%

Draw
31.8%

Madureira
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

27.6%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

26.7%

25.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nova Iguaçu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nova Iguaçu's form might have worsened.

Madureira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nova Iguaçu than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nova Iguaçu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Madureira than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Nova Iguaçu - Madureira Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Maticoli (G) 2. Renan 3. Mateus Muller 4. Guilherme Henrique 5. Igor Guilherme 6. Sidney Pages (C) 8. Jorge Pedra 10. Lucas Cruz 7. Xandinho 9. Kennyd 11. Andrey	31. Mota (G) 3. Arthur Edeson 6. Felipe C. 22. Celsinho 4. Jean 5. Rodrigo Lindoso 8. Marcelo (C) 7. Minho 9. Jefferson Victor 10. Renato Henrique 11. Welington Zaru
Substitutes
18. Caio Hones 15. Fernandinho 17. Igor Lemos 20. Joao Lucas 21. Joao Pedro 16. Joao Victor 19. Kauan 22. Kayke David 13. Matheus Matias 12. Pedro Zanette (G) 14. Yan Silva	17. Caua Coutinho 2. da Silva Freire M. V. 19. Flavio Souza 14. Fuba 20. Geovane Maranhao 12. Guilherme Cabo (G) 21. Hugo Cabral 18. Isaias 15. Lucas Paraiba 13. Marlon 16. Pablo 1. Yan (G)
Coaches
Carlos Vitor	Neri D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Marcelo ⚽, Celsinho (A),
25', 1 - 1, Kennyd ⚽, Xandinho (A),
38', Mateus Muller 🟨,
45', Andrey 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Welington Zaru ↓, Fuba ↑,
47', Guilherme Henrique ↓, Yan Silva ↑,
58', Celsinho 🟨,
64', Minho ↓, Hugo Cabral ↑,
64', Jean ↓, Caua Coutinho ↑,
68', 1 - 2, Renato Henrique ⚽, Marcelo (A),
72', Xandinho ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
72', Igor Guilherme ↓, Kauan ↑,
72', Kennyd ↓, Caio Hones ↑,
73', Felipe C. 🟨,
83', Jorge Pedra ↓, Joao Lucas ↑,
85', Renato Henrique ↓, da Silva Freire M. V. ↑,
90', Jefferson Victor ↓, Flavio Souza ↑,
90+1', Fuba 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-0.

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca (Taca Rio: Semi~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca (Taca Rio: Semi~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nova Iguaçu won 4.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Madureira could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Nova Iguaçu will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Nova Iguaçu won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 13:8 (average 1.3:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Nova Iguaçu won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 13:4 (average 1.9:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nova Iguaçu
Copa do Brasil
05.03.25	Nova Iguaçu - Vasco da Gama	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.03.25	Madureira - Nova Iguaçu	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
26.02.25	Barcelona RO - Nova Iguaçu	1:4 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
23.02.25	Nova Iguaçu - Madureira	2:1 ✺
16.02.25	Fluminense - Nova Iguaçu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTWWL
- Madureira EC
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.03.25	Madureira - Nova Iguaçu	0:0 ✺
23.02.25	Nova Iguaçu - Madureira	2:1 ✺
15.02.25	Bangu - Madureira	0:3 ✺
09.02.25	Botafogo RJ - Madureira	0:2 ✺
06.02.25	Madureira - Sampaio Corrêa FE	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.1 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.03.25	Madureira - Nova Iguaçu	0:0
23.02.25	Nova Iguaçu - Madureira	2:1
08.02.24	Nova Iguaçu - Madureira	1:0
09.03.23	Nova Iguaçu - Madureira	4:0
13.03.22	Nova Iguaçu - Madureira	3:0
07.03.21	Nova Iguaçu - Madureira	0:0
04.03.18	Nova Iguaçu - Madureira	1:1

Nova Iguaçu - Madureira: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide