Match Info

BRAZIL: Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Round 8

Date: 6 February 2025, Thursday

Location: Estádio Moça Bonita (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: De Castro C. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Usa	Fanatiz


	Nova Iguaçu		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	6	3.6	1.58
	5.4	3.4	1.59
	5.98	3.55	1.59
	5.81	3.55	1.58	Watch
	5.72	3.75	1.56	Watch
	5.4	3.4	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.72 ↑ (4.96)	3.54 ↓ (3.76)	1.58 ↓ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nova Iguaçu
16.1%

Draw
25.9%

Botafogo RJ
58%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.7%

24.7%

56.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.9%

25.8%

59.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nova Iguaçu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Botafogo RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nova Iguaçu than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Nova Iguaçu - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Maticoli (G) 4. Yan Silva 2. Gabriel Pinheiro (C) 6. Renan 3. Ramon Pereira 5. Fernandinho 8. Igor Guilherme 7. Xandinho 10. Joao Silva 11. Andrey 9. Victor Rangel	12. John Victor (G) 2. Vitinho 15. Bastos 20. Barboza A. 66. Cuiabano 26. Gregore 17. Marlon Freitas (C) 7. Artur 10. Savarino J. 11. Matheus Martins 99. Igor Jesus
Substitutes
18. Caio Hones 14. Guilherme Henrique 21. Iago 15. Jorge Pedra 22. Kennyd 20. Lucas Cruz 16. Mateus Muller 13. Matheus Matias 17. Mayron 12. Pedro Zanette (G) 19. Philippe Costa	5. Danilo Barbosa 18. Kaue 19. Kayke 90. Matheus Nascimento 28. Newton 6. Patrick de Paula 4. Ponte M. 69. Rafael Lobato 1. Raul Steffens (G) 63. Serafim 37. Vitinho 67. Yarlen
Coaches
Carlos Vitor	Carlos Leiria

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Bastos ↓, Serafim ↑,
18', Artur ↓, Rafael Lobato ↑,
45', Cuiabano 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ramon Pereira ↓, Mateus Muller ↑,
46', Gregore ↓, Newton ↑,
46', Igor Jesus ↓, Kayke ↑,
46', Serafim 🟨,
57', Serafim ↓, Patrick de Paula ↑,
57', Victor Rangel ↓, Philippe Costa ↑,
57', Andrey ↓, Caio Hones ↑,
60', Fernandinho 🟨,
68', Savarino J. (Pen),
70', Gabriel Pinheiro 🟨,
80', Joao Silva ↓, Jorge Pedra ↑,
80', Igor Guilherme ↓, Lucas Cruz ↑,
90+1', 0 - 1, Kayke ⚽, Savarino J. (A),

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca (Taca Guanabara ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca (Taca Rio: Semi~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nova Iguaçu won 0.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Botafogo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Botafogo have a series of home games.

In this match Botafogo is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Nova Iguaçu won 0 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 8:17 (average 0.7:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Nova Iguaçu won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2:5 (average 0.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nova Iguaçu
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
02.02.25	Portuguesa RJ - Nova Iguaçu	0:1 ✺
30.01.25	Nova Iguaçu - Bangu	1:1 ✺
27.01.25	Nova Iguaçu - Boavista	0:0 ✺
22.01.25	Maricá - Nova Iguaçu	2:0 ✺
19.01.25	Flamengo - Nova Iguaçu	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WTTLW
- Botafogo RJ
Supercopa do Brasil
02.02.25	Botafogo RJ - Flamengo	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
29.01.25	Botafogo RJ - Fluminense	2:1 ✺
26.01.25	Botafogo RJ - Bangu	2:0 ✺
22.01.25	Botafogo RJ - Volta Redonda	1:2 ✺
18.01.25	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Botafogo RJ	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
03.02.24	Botafogo RJ - Nova Iguaçu	2:2
01.02.23	Botafogo RJ - Nova Iguaçu	0:0
07.02.22	Botafogo RJ - Nova Iguaçu	2:0
09.05.21	Nova Iguaçu - Botafogo RJ	0:1
02.05.21	Botafogo RJ - Nova Iguaçu	0:0
28.03.21	Nova Iguaçu - Botafogo RJ	1:2
22.02.18	Nova Iguaçu - Botafogo RJ	1:2

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