Match Info

BRAZIL: Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Round 3

Date: 19 January 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Governador João Castelo (São Luís)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Brasileirao Play, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Flamengo		Nova Iguaçu

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.3	3.25
	2.15	3.25	3.4	Watch
	2.09	3.3	3.26	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.2
	2.11	3.3	3.27	Watch
	2.15	3.25	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.76)	3.25 ↓ (3.75)	3.3 ↓ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flamengo
43.4%

Draw
28.5%

Nova Iguaçu
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

24.6%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flamengo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Flamengo's form might have worsened.

Nova Iguaçu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nova Iguaçu's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Flamengo - Nova Iguaçu Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Flamengo will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Nova Iguaçu will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
49. Dyogo Alves (G) 51. Daniel Sales 21. Pablo (C) 63. Felipe Vieira 39. Ze Welinton 42. Fabiano 35. Rayan Lucas 32. Thiaguinho 19. Lorran 47. Guilherme 28. Carlinhos	1. Lucas Maticoli (G) 2. Gabriel Pinheiro (C) 8. Lucas Cruz 3. Mateus Muller 6. Sidney Pages 10. Joao Silva 4. Guilherme Henrique 5. Igor Guilherme 11. Andrey 9. Philippe Costa 7. Xandinho
Substitutes
70. Ainoa 55. Caio Garcia 41. Da Mata 40. Felipe Teresa 69. Guilherme Santos 50. Joao Alves 24. Lucas Furtado (G) 53. Lucyan 67. Rafael Vargas 54. Shola O. 64. Wallace Yan 73. Wesley Franca	18. Caio Hones 15. Fernandinho 21. Igor Lemos 20. Jorge Pedra 22. Kauan 17. Kayke David 14. Matheus Matias 16. Mayron 12. Pedro Zanette (G) 13. Renan 19. Victor Rangel
Coaches
Filipe Luis	Carlos Vitor

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', 0 - 1, Lucas Cruz ⚽, Philippe Costa (A),
43', Joao Silva 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Philippe Costa ↓, Victor Rangel ↑,
46', Thiaguinho ↓, Wallace Yan ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Wallace Yan ⚽,
54', Guilherme Henrique ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
58', Mateus Muller 🟨,
62', Guilherme ↓, Joao Alves ↑,
66', Mateus Muller ↓, Jorge Pedra ↑,
66', Joao Silva ↓, Renan ↑,
68', 1 - 2, Victor Rangel (Pen),
73', Lucas Cruz ↓, Igor Lemos ↑,
76', Lorran ↓, Felipe Teresa ↑,
77', Fabiano ↓, Shola O. ↑,
83', Ze Welinton ↓, Ainoa ↑,
90+7', Fernandinho 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Flamengo won 4.

Recent matches Flamengo is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Flamengo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Flamengo will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Flamengo won 8 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 23:2 (average 2.3:0.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Flamengo won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 14:1 (average 2.8:0.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flamengo RJ
Club Friendly
19.01.25	São Paulo - Flamengo	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
16.01.25	Madureira - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
12.01.25	Flamengo - Boavista	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
08.12.24	Flamengo - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
04.12.24	Criciúma - Flamengo	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTLTW
- Nova Iguaçu
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
15.01.25	Nova Iguaçu - Sampaio Corrêa FE	1:0 ✺
11.01.25	Nova Iguaçu - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Rio
28.08.24	Nova Iguaçu - Serrano FC	0:0 ✺
21.08.24	Serrano FC - Nova Iguaçu	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
17.08.24	Nova Iguaçu - Internacional de Limeira	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
07.04.24	Flamengo - Nova Iguaçu	1:0
30.03.24	Nova Iguaçu - Flamengo	0:3
21.01.24	Nova Iguaçu - Flamengo	1:1
21.01.23	Flamengo - Nova Iguaçu	5:0
13.02.22	Flamengo - Nova Iguaçu	5:0
02.03.21	Flamengo - Nova Iguaçu	1:0
04.02.18	Nova Iguaçu - Flamengo	0:1

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