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Current Win Probability
Nova Iguaçu 35.5%
Draw 32.8%
Portuguesa RJ 31.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
43.6%
30.5%
25.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44.1%
30.9%
25.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nova Iguaçu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nova Iguaçu's form might have worsened.
Portuguesa RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Portuguesa RJ's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nova Iguaçu than the current prediction. (+8.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nova Iguaçu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portuguesa RJ than the current prediction. (-6.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Portuguesa RJ, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Nova Iguaçu - Portuguesa RJ Predictions
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
DNB - Portuguesa RJ (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Portuguesa RJ (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
31. Mota (G) 2. Ze Gabriel 3. Wender 4. Augusto 14. Guilherme Kayron 8. Leo Rafael 5. Jorge Pedra 7. Xandinho 10. Lucas Cruz 11. Iago Lacerda 9. Luan Capanni
1. Douglas Borges (G) 66. Alex Reinaldo 93. Henrique C. 13. Lucas Costa (C) 33. Guilherme Santos 8. Joao Paulo 5. Henrique Rocha 17. Gutemberg 10. Romarinho 19. Lohan 9. Uelber
Substitutes
20. Bill 16. Daniel Zavoli 17. Joao Pedro 24. Leo David 13. Lucas Cirilo 1. Matheus Miranda (G) 21. Pedro Silva 15. Pedro Thomaz 22. Rickelme Lopes 6. Sidney Pages 18. Thomasel 19. Vini Charopem
23. Alexandre Azizi (G) 6. Alex Moretti 27. Bruno Mota 14. Chay 11. Guilherme Silveira 15. Gustavo Aguiar 31. Leo Muchacho 30. Patrick 18. Rhuan Silveira 12. Vinicius Barreta (G)
Coaches
Carlos Vitor
Sampaio A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Uelber 🟨,
28', Jorge Pedra 🟨,
31', Iago Lacerda 🟨,
32', Henrique C. 🟨,
32', Luan Capanni 🟨,
40', Lohan 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Augusto ↓, Pedro Thomaz ↑,
46', Romarinho ↓, Wellington Cezar ↑,
46', Joao Paulo ↓, Gustavo Aguiar ↑,
65', Leo Rafael ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
65', Luan Capanni ↓, Vini Charopem ↑,
65', Iago Lacerda ↓, Bill ↑,
67', Alex Reinaldo ↓, Lenon ↑,
73', Guilherme Kayron 🟨,
74', Uelber ↓, Leo Muchacho ↑,
79', Gustavo Aguiar 🟨,
83', 1 - 0, Vini Charopem (Penalty Awarded),
85', Bill ↓, Daniel Zavoli ↑,
87', Henrique Rocha ↓, Chay ↑,
90', Mota 🟨,
90+3', Lenon 🟨,
90+3', Wender 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 1, Lohan ⚽,
90+12', 🟨,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nova Iguaçu won 2.
Recent form of Nova Iguaçu has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Portuguesa RJ is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Nova Iguaçu may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Nova Iguaçu won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:16. (average 0.8:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Nova Iguaçu won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 0.6:0.6).
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Mota (G) 
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