Match Info

Serie D - Round 9

Date: 14 June 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Janio Moraes (Rio de Janeiro) 🌤️ ...


	Nova Iguaçu		Rio Branco AC ES

	1	X	2
	2	3.2	3.25
	1.98	3.05	3.76
				Watch
	1.98	3.08	3.72
	2.2	3.15	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.53)	3.12 ↓ (3.14)	3.42 ↑ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nova Iguaçu
44.4%

Draw
29.1%

Rio Branco AC ES
26.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.6%

28.7%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

28.9%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nova Iguaçu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nova Iguaçu's performance.

Rio Branco AC ES has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rio Branco AC ES might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nova Iguaçu than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nova Iguaçu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Branco AC ES than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rio Branco AC ES could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Nova Iguaçu - Rio Branco AC ES Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 7 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Nova Iguaçu may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Nova Iguaçu is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Nova Iguaçu won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nova Iguaçu
Brazilian Serie D
07.06.25	Portuguesa - Nova Iguaçu	1:0 ✺
31.05.25	Nova Iguaçu - Portuguesa	1:1 ✺
24.05.25	Rio Branco AC ES - Nova Iguaçu	0:1 ✺
17.05.25	Nova Iguaçu - Boavista	2:1 ✺
10.05.25	Pouso Alegre - Nova Iguaçu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTWWL
- Rio Branco AC ES
Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
11.06.25	Vilavelhense - Rio Branco AC ES	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
04.06.25	Rio Branco AC ES - Pouso Alegre	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
03.06.25	Rio Branco AC ES - Sport Capixaba	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
31.05.25	Pouso Alegre - Rio Branco AC ES	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
28.05.25	Porto Vitória - Rio Branco AC ES	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
24.05.25	Rio Branco AC ES - Nova Iguaçu	0:1

Nova Iguaçu - Rio Branco AC ES