Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Promotion Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos (Soria)


	Numancia		Poblense

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.2	4.35
	1.86	3.12	4.52
	1.76	3.29	4.68	Watch
	1.78	3.24	4.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (1.92)	3.21 ↑ (3.07)	4.48 ↑ (4.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Numancia
51.1%

Draw
28.5%

Poblense
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

30%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

29%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Numancia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Poblense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Numancia than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Poblense than the current prediction. (+1%)

Numancia - Poblense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
71', 0 - 1, Alarcon M. ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

Numancia is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Poblense has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Numancia is the team to beat.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Numancia - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 47.94%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Numancia
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
03.05.26	Numancia - Marino de Luanco	1:0 ✺
26.04.26	Langreo - Numancia	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Sámano - Numancia	0:3 ✺
12.04.26	Numancia - Real Ávila	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Real Oviedo B - Numancia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WTWWT
- UD Poblense
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
03.05.26	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas - Poblense	3:1 ✺
26.04.26	Poblense - Porreres	3:1 ✺
19.04.26	Terrassa - Poblense	2:3 ✺
12.04.26	Poblense - Torrent	2:1 ✺
05.04.26	Sant Andreu - Poblense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWWL

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