The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Náutico Capibaribe 25.9%
Draw 26.8%
Grêmio Novorizontino 47.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
32.2%
27.8%
40%
Our Initial ML Estimation
31.4%
27.1%
41%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Náutico Capibaribe's form might have worsened.
Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Grêmio Novorizontino's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+5.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Náutico Capibaribe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-6.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Grêmio Novorizontino, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Náutico will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Novorizontino will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Preview
An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 13th and 4th in the Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Playoffs - Final)).
Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.
A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Novorizontino holding a narrow advantage.
Confirmed absences for Náutico: Igor Fernandes
(Inactive)
Mateus Silva
(Inactive)
Matheus Ribeiro
(Injury).
Confirmed absences for Novorizontino: Renato Palm
(Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for Náutico: Danielzinho
(Inactive).
In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Náutico has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 5:9 (averaging 1.7:3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Náutico against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 3:1 goals.
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
4
Novorizontino
31
15
9
7
52:27
25
54
13
Nautico
31
11
9
11
39:38
1
42
Last Results with these Odds
Náutico Capibaribe - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 32.15%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.
Brazil
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