Match Info

Catarinense - Relegation Group - Round 3

Date: 13 February 2026, Friday

Location: Arena Joinville (Joinville)


	Joinville		Carlos Renaux

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.04	3.1	3.92
	2.06	3.03	3.93	Watch
	2	2.9	3.7
	1.99	3.17	3.78
	1.95	3	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.03)	3.04 ↓ (3.12)	3.87 ↑ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joinville
45.9%

Draw
30.3%

Carlos Renaux
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

29.6%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

29.4%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joinville has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Carlos Renaux has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joinville than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlos Renaux than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Joinville - Carlos Renaux Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thiago (G) 8. Bruno Camilo 5. Felipe Para 10. Gabriel Terra 4. Gutieri (C) 7. Iago Dias 9. Keke 11. Luizinho 6. Natanael 2. Toty 3. Vitao	1. Edson (G) 2. Arouca 9. Erverson 8. Gustavo Sobral Alves Pereira L. 7. Matheus Campos 10. Pato 11. Thiago Tinoco 3. Tiago Santana (C) 5. Vitor Carre 4. Welligton Rocha 6. Yago Zamora
Substitutes
25. Alyson 19. Da Silva 23. Fernando Neto 16. Jean Mineiro 22. Kaka 17. Klock J. 21. Lucas Lopes 18. Rickson 13. Rodrigo Bazilio (G) 14. Victor Oliveira 15. Yalle 20. Ytalo	21. Cassio 17. Gabriel Mello 15. Keven 13. Rafael Franco 14. Rondinele 16. Ruan 19. Tavares 12. Thierry (G) 20. Welves 18. Willian Mococa

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', Vitao 🟨,
19', Gustavo Sobral Alves Pereira L. 🟨,
26', 1 - 0, Iago Dias ⚽,
33', 2 - 0, Luizinho ⚽,
38', 🟨,
44', 🟨,
45', Pato 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Vitao ↓, Victor Oliveira ↑,
46', Pato ↓, Gabriel Mello ↑,
48', Thiago Tinoco ↓, Henrique P. ↑,
54', Bruno Camilo ↓, Rickson ↑,
62', Erverson ↓, Cassio ↑,
70', Matheus Campos ↓, Willian Mococa ↑,
71', Luizinho 🟨,
73', 🟨,
75', Henrique P. 🟥,
76', Keke ↓, Da Silva ↑,
76', Luizinho ↓, Fernando Neto ↑,
76', Arouca ↓, Tavares ↑,
84', Iago Dias 🟨,
86', Gabriel Terra ↓, Klock J. ↑,
90+2', 3 - 0, Fernando Neto ⚽,

Preview

Joinville is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Carlos Renaux has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Joinville is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Carlos Renaux will win today's game, with odds of 4.29.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Joinville won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Joinville won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joinville
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
06.02.26	Figueirense - Joinville	1:0 ✺
03.02.26	Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:4 ✺
25.01.26	Chapecoense - Joinville	6:0 ✺
21.01.26	Joinville - Carlos Renaux	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Santa Catarina - Joinville	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- CA Carlos Renaux
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
09.02.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Carlos Renaux	1:1 ✺
02.02.26	Carlos Renaux - Figueirense	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Carlos Renaux - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:4 ✺
21.01.26	Joinville - Carlos Renaux	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Carlos Renaux - Camboriú	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.6 TWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
21.01.26	Joinville - Carlos Renaux	0:1
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
01.10.25	Carlos Renaux - Joinville	2:0
21.09.25	Joinville - Carlos Renaux	4:2

Joinville - Carlos Renaux: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide