Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 18

Date: 3 July 2026, Friday

Location: Männiku Stadium (Tallinn)

Referee: Lorenz J. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Nõmme United		Nõmme Kalju

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.50	4.20	1.52
	4.45	4.15	1.6
	4.53	4.23	1.68
	4.86	4.39	1.57	Watch
	4.45	4	1.65
	4.5	4.26	1.63	Watch
	4.3	4.2	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.51 ↓ (5.18)	4.2 ↓ (4.55)	1.61 ↑ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nõmme United
20.5%

Draw
22%

Nõmme Kalju
57.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18%

20.4%

61.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.3%

19.6%

64%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nõmme United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Nõmme Kalju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nõmme United than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nõmme Kalju than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nõmme Kalju could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	14.3%	78.6%

Nõmme United - Nõmme Kalju Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Nõmme United will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Nõmme Kalju will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nõmme Kalju: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lagus G. (G) 55. Chanda R. 2. Morishige Y. 6. Palts M. 3. Merilai S. 10. Frolov A. (C) 26. Oostenbrink K. 13. Truuvaart A. 11. Chisala B. 16. Dacosta O. 49. Beglarishvili Z.	1. Perk H. (C) 78. Mashchenko D. 50. Podholjuzin M. 46. Vukusic R. 22. Nikolajev A. 8. Musolitin O. 26. Siht R. 20. Tambedou M. 21. Baptista T. 17. Lotar Eyang E. E. 11. Orlov M.
Substitutes
4. Alteberg A. 24. Kabal G. 23. Laanelaid K. 20. Matas K. 91. Ortega R. (G) 9. Ounapuu E. 71. Purg G. (G) 22. Radomskiy A. 8. Vain B. 52. Vendelin T.	4. Borolinstsikov A. 10. Ivanov N. 30. Jabir I. 74. Jekimov F. 96. Kindel J. (G) 5. Korre U. 2. Lillemets J. 14. Pihkva J. 88. Sotsugov D. 7. Tarassenkov D. 59. Vastsuk B.
Coaches
Cisakowski S.	Andreev N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
20', 0 - 1, Baptista T. ⚽, Musolitin O. (A),
21', 1 - 1, Chanda R. ⚽, Morishige Y. (A),
26', 1 - 2, Musolitin O. ⚽, Orlov M. (A),
35', Andreev N. 🟨,
45', 1 - 3, Orlov M. ⚽, Lotar Eyang E. E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Musolitin O. ↓, Sotsugov D. ↑,
66', Merilai S. ↓, Ounapuu E. ↑,
66', Dacosta O. ↓, Vendelin T. ↑,
66', Chanda R. ↓, Matas K. ↑,
67', Orlov M. ↓, Tarassenkov D. ↑,
67', Lotar Eyang E. E. ↓, Jabir I. ↑,
71', Truuvaart A. ↓, Vain B. ↑,
77', Nikolajev A. ↓, Borolinstsikov A. ↑,
82', Vain B. 🟨,
89', Morishige Y. ↓, Radomskiy A. ↑,
90', Radomskiy A. 🟨,
90+2', Vendelin T. 🟨,

Preview

Nõmme United has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Nõmme Kalju's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Nõmme Kalju may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Nõmme Kalju is the team to beat.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nõmme United won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:15. (average 0.4:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Nõmme United won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:4. (average 0:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Kalju	29	15	5	9	52:27	25	50
9	Nomme Utd	29	9	1	19	47:68	-21	28

Last Results with these Odds

Nõmme Kalju - the odds 1.51 are the expected chance of winning is 61.6%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nõmme United
Estonian Meistriliiga
20.06.26	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme United	1:3 ✺
17.06.26	Nõmme United - Levadia Tallinn	1:2 ✺
13.06.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme United	1:2 ✺
29.05.26	Nõmme United - Flora Tallinn	0:4 ✺
20.05.26	Kuressaare - Nõmme United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLWLL
- Nõmme Kalju FC
Estonian Meistriliiga
28.06.26	Nõmme Kalju - Paide LM	1:1 ✺
20.06.26	Levadia Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	1:1 ✺
17.06.26	Nõmme Kalju - Tammeka	1:2 ✺
14.06.26	Nõmme Kalju - Paide LM	1:1 ✺
30.05.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme Kalju	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
22.04.26	Nõmme Kalju - Nõmme United	7:1
18.09.24	Nõmme Kalju - Nõmme United	3:0
19.07.24	Nõmme United - Nõmme Kalju	0:4
28.05.24	Nõmme Kalju - Nõmme United	1:1
17.03.24	Nõmme United - Nõmme Kalju	0:0

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