Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 32

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Männiku Stadium (Tallinn) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Jaanovits J. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Estonia	12:30	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV


	Nõmme United		Nõmme Kalju

	1	X	2
	4.10	3.90	1.61
	4.25	4.05	1.6
	4.47	4.31	1.67
	4.24	4.27	1.67	Watch
	4.4	4.25	1.62
	4.37	4.16	1.66	Watch
	4.1	4	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.28 ↓ (4.84)	4.13 ↓ (4.3)	1.64 ↑ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nõmme United
21.5%

Draw
22.3%

Nõmme Kalju
56.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

18.8%

21.1%

60.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.8%

20%

57.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nõmme United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Nõmme Kalju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nõmme United than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nõmme Kalju than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Nõmme United - Nõmme Kalju Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Nõmme Kalju will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Purg G. (G) 55. Chanda R. 50. Geiger S. 6. Palts M. 23. Laanelaid K. 10. Frolov A. (C) 14. Vassiljev N. 7. Torres A. 45. Jarvelaid H. 49. Beglarishvili Z. 19. Krasnov I.	69. Pavlov M. (G) 78. Mashchenko D. 46. Vukusic R. 20. Tambedou M. 4. Borolinstsikov A. 8. Musolitin O. 26. Siht R. 10. Ivanov N. (C) 21. Baptista T. 11. Orlov M. 27. Mannilaan M.
Substitutes
4. Alteberg A. 15. Evans T. 91. Kais O. (G) 1. Lagus G. (G) 12. Marmei M. 20. Matas K. 27. Miil M. 26. Oostenbrink K. 9. Ounapuu E.	30. Jabir I. 74. Jekimov F. 2. Lillemets J. 17. Lotar Eyang E. E. 22. Nikolajev A. 1. Perk H. (G) 14. Pihkva J.
Coaches
Wynalda E.	Andreev N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Beglarishvili Z. ⚽, Krasnov I. (A),
35', Siht R. 🟨,
36', 2 - 0, Vassiljev N. ⚽, Jarvelaid H. (A),
38', 3 - 0, Mashchenko D. (Own goal),
43', Palts M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mannilaan M. ↓, Jabir I. ↑,
46', Baptista T. ↓, Lotar Eyang E. E. ↑,
62', Vassiljev N. ↓, Oostenbrink K. ↑,
64', Laanelaid K. 🟨,
64', Ivanov N. 🟨,
68', Ivanov N. ↓, Nikolajev A. ↑,
76', Borolinstsikov A. ↓, Jekimov F. ↑,
80', Musolitin O. ↓, Lillemets J. ↑,
80', Jarvelaid H. ↓, Evans T. ↑,
87', Evans T. 🟥,
88', Beglarishvili Z. ↓, Marmei M. ↑,
90', Geiger S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nõmme United won 1.

Recent results have been tough for Nõmme United (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Nõmme Kalju has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Bookmakers give the edge to Nõmme Kalju for this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Nõmme United has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:19 (averaging 0.7:2.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Nõmme United against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 1:7 goals (averaging 0.3:2.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Kalju	33	16	6	11	56:34	22	54
7	Nomme Utd	34	12	1	21	55:76	-21	37

Last Results with these Odds

Nõmme Kalju - the odds 1.51 are the expected chance of winning is 60.07%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nõmme United
Estonian Meistriliiga
13.10.26	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme United	2:0 ✺
10.10.26	Tammeka - Nõmme United	4:0 ✺
19.09.26	Nõmme United - Paide LM	1:3 ✺
12.09.26	Nõmme United - Flora Tallinn	2:3 ✺
08.09.26	Nõmme Kalju - Nõmme United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LLLLW
- Nõmme Kalju FC
Estonian Meistriliiga
13.10.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme Kalju	2:2 ✺
10.10.26	Nõmme Kalju - Harju JK Laagri	0:1 ✺
20.09.26	Tammeka - Nõmme Kalju	1:3 ✺
12.09.26	Nõmme Kalju - Narva Trans	2:0 ✺
08.09.26	Nõmme Kalju - Nõmme United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
08.09.26	Nõmme Kalju - Nõmme United	1:2
03.07.26	Nõmme United - Nõmme Kalju	1:3
22.04.26	Nõmme Kalju - Nõmme United	7:1
18.09.24	Nõmme Kalju - Nõmme United	3:0
19.07.24	Nõmme United - Nõmme Kalju	0:4
28.05.24	Nõmme Kalju - Nõmme United	1:1
17.03.24	Nõmme United - Nõmme Kalju	0:0

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