Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 17

Date: 20 June 2026, Saturday

Location: Laagri kunstmurustaadion (Laagri)

Referee: Tohver K. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV


	Harju JK Laagri		Nõmme United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.40	3.60	2.30
	2.38	3.80	2.40
	2.62	4.10	2.34
	1.9	4.11	3.33	Watch
	2.45	3.60	2.30
	2.64	3.52	2.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (2.3)	3.79 ↑ (3.67)	2.52 ↓ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Harju JK Laagri
38.7%

Draw
24.5%

Nõmme United
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

25.3%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

24.3%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Harju JK Laagri has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Nõmme United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Harju JK Laagri than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nõmme United than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme United Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Harju will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Harju (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Harju (1.56) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Harju (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vainula J. (G) 4. Jarve A. (C) 15. Liit S. 24. Laur K. 23. Rudenko Daniil 7. Reimaa R. 5. Kartau I. 13. Sillamaa R. 66. Roomussaar K. 16. Kriis K. 9. Eerme K.	1. Lagus G. (G) 55. Chanda R. 2. Morishige Y. 6. Palts M. 3. Merilai S. 10. Frolov A. (C) 26. Oostenbrink K. 45. Jarvelaid H. 11. Chisala B. 16. Dacosta O. 49. Beglarishvili Z.
Substitutes
18. Bah I. 47. Ennuste K. 3. Kaevats A. 17. Kelement M. 32. Kerge S. 22. Kesa M. 11. Kose A. 79. Meesit R. (G) 6. Palutaja H. 21. Soo S. 95. Suppi S.	24. Kabal G. 19. Krasnov I. 23. Laanelaid K. 20. Matas K. 91. Ortega R. (G) 9. Ounapuu E. 71. Purg G. (G) 22. Radomskiy A. 13. Truuvaart A. 8. Vain B. 14. Vassiljev N.
Coaches
Nuuma L.	Cisakowski S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Jarvelaid H. 🟨,
24', Roomussaar K. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Rudenko Daniil ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Roomussaar K. ↓, Kelement M. ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Oostenbrink K. ⚽, Beglarishvili Z. (A),
57', 1 - 2, Chisala B. ⚽, Beglarishvili Z. (A),
65', Eerme K. ↓, Kose A. ↑,
65', Sillamaa R. ↓, Palutaja H. ↑,
72', Dacosta O. ↓, Truuvaart A. ↑,
72', Jarvelaid H. ↓, Laanelaid K. ↑,
72', Morishige Y. ↓, Vassiljev N. ↑,
82', 1 - 3, Ounapuu E. ⚽,
83', Reimaa R. ↓, Kesa M. ↑,
83', Rudenko Daniil ↓, Kaevats A. ↑,
89', Beglarishvili Z. ↓, Matas K. ↑,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 7 and 9 in the zone Meistriliiga (Relegation))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Harju won 3.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Harju might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Harju won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 2.4:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Harju won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:4. (average 3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Harju JK Laagri	29	11	2	16	40:47	-7	35
9	Nomme Utd	29	9	1	19	47:68	-21	28

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Harju JK Laagri
Estonian Meistriliiga
17.06.26	Paide LM - Harju JK Laagri	1:0 ✺
13.06.26	Harju JK Laagri - Kuressaare	2:3 ✺
30.05.26	Harju JK Laagri - Narva Trans	3:0 ✺
20.05.26	Nõmme Kalju - Harju JK Laagri	1:0 ✺
16.05.26	Harju JK Laagri - Pärnu Vaprus	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLWLL
- Nõmme United
Estonian Meistriliiga
17.06.26	Nõmme United - Levadia Tallinn	1:2 ✺
13.06.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme United	1:2 ✺
29.05.26	Nõmme United - Flora Tallinn	0:4 ✺
20.05.26	Kuressaare - Nõmme United	2:1 ✺
15.05.26	Tammeka - Nõmme United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
18.04.26	Nõmme United - Harju JK Laagri	1:2
Estonian Cup
30.10.25	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme United	0:1
14.08.24	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme United	3:0
Estonian Esiliiga
22.10.22	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme United	5:1
04.09.22	Nõmme United - Harju JK Laagri	4:1
28.04.22	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme United	4:2
10.04.22	Nõmme United - Harju JK Laagri	3:2

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