Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 14

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Parnu Rannastaadion (Parnu)

Referee: Lorenz J. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV
Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Pärnu Vaprus		Nõmme Kalju

	1	X	2
	6.4	4.25	1.43	Watch
	6.3	4.69	1.42
	6.28	4.66	1.44	Watch
	6	4.2	1.4
	6.64	4.45	1.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.32 ↑ (5.97)	4.45 ↓ (4.77)	1.41 ↓ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pärnu Vaprus
14.5%

Draw
20.6%

Nõmme Kalju
64.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.6%

19.5%

65%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.2%

19%

66.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pärnu Vaprus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Nõmme Kalju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pärnu Vaprus than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nõmme Kalju than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme Kalju Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Nomm O. (C) 90. Sild J. 43. Seppik M. 28. Lipp M. 9. Poder J. 24. Villota M. 86. Roosson R. 20. Valja H. 8. Pajo T. 10. Viidas S. 22. Lepik M.	1. Perk H. (C) 78. Mashchenko D. 5. Korre U. 20. Tambedou M. 22. Nikolajev A. 88. Sotsugov D. 26. Siht R. 59. Vastsuk B. 21. Baptista T. 27. Mannilaan M. 10. Ivanov N.
Substitutes
64. Allas J. 17. Kapper S. 11. Kauber K. 88. Keskula E. 19. Korre A. 42. Limberg M. 14. Orm R. 3. Rand K. 12. Ristimets M. (G) 1. Vainu H. (G) 7. Vallik V.	17. Lotar Eyang E. E. 8. Musolitin O. 11. Orlov M. 69. Pavlov M. (G) 50. Podholjuzin M. 7. Tarassenkov D.
Coaches
Prins I.	Andreev N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', Tambedou M. 🟨,
4', 1 - 0, Valja H. (Penalty Awarded),
7', Poder J. ↓, Limberg M. ↑,
23', Ivanov N. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Tambedou M. ↓, Musolitin O. ↑,
50', Pajo T. 🟨,
52', 2 - 0, Valja H. ⚽,
59', Sotsugov D. ↓, Tarassenkov D. ↑,
59', Ivanov N. ↓, Orlov M. ↑,
63', 2 - 1, Mannilaan M. (Penalty Awarded),
64', Viidas S. ↓, Kapper S. ↑,
66', Lepik M. 🟨,
66', Baptista T. ↓, Lotar Eyang E. E. ↑,
76', Roosson R. ↓, Allas J. ↑,
76', Pajo T. ↓, Orm R. ↑,
76', Sild J. ↓, Vallik V. ↑,
87', Musolitin O. 🟨,
90+2', 3 - 1, Vallik V. ⚽, Limberg M. (A),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 6 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pärnu Vaprus won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Pärnu Vaprus may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Nõmme Kalju is the obvious favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pärnu Vaprus won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 18:50. (average 0.9:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Pärnu Vaprus won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 10:33. (average 0.9:3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Kalju	29	15	5	9	52:27	25	50
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	29	10	4	15	39:57	-18	34

Last Results with these Odds

Nõmme Kalju - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 64.96%, but this team recently wins 83% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pärnu JK Vaprus
Estonian Meistriliiga
24.05.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Levadia Tallinn	1:6 ✺
16.05.26	Harju JK Laagri - Pärnu Vaprus	1:2 ✺
09.05.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Narva Trans	2:0 ✺
Estonian Cup
06.05.26	Paide LM - Pärnu Vaprus	2:0 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
02.05.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme United	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWWLL
- Nõmme Kalju FC
Estonian Meistriliiga
20.05.26	Nõmme Kalju - Harju JK Laagri	1:0 ✺
17.05.26	Kuressaare - Nõmme Kalju	0:2 ✺
10.05.26	Nõmme Kalju - Flora Tallinn	0:1 ✺
01.05.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju	0:3 ✺
26.04.26	Nõmme Kalju - Pärnu Vaprus	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
26.04.26	Nõmme Kalju - Pärnu Vaprus	1:2
05.10.25	Nõmme Kalju - Pärnu Vaprus	1:0
10.08.25	Nõmme Kalju - Pärnu Vaprus	1:2
27.06.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme Kalju	2:2
01.03.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme Kalju	0:3
Club Friendly
24.01.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme Kalju	1:3
Estonian Meistriliiga
09.11.24	Nõmme Kalju - Pärnu Vaprus	2:1

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