Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 28

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Hiiu Stadium (Tallinn)

Referee: Jakobson J. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Nõmme Kalju		Narva Trans

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.46	4.10	5.25
	1.52	3.85	5.4
	1.6	4.13	5.2
	1.46	4.56	5.97	Watch
	1.58	4	5.1
	1.58	4.22	5.01	Watch
	1.47	4.2	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.47)	4.15 ↓ (4.31)	5.33 ↓ (5.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nõmme Kalju
60.5%

Draw
22.2%

Narva Trans
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.3%

21.3%

16.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.4%

20.6%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nõmme Kalju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Narva Trans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nõmme Kalju than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Narva Trans than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Nõmme Kalju - Narva Trans Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
69. Pavlov M. (G) 46. Vukusic R. 50. Podholjuzin M. 5. Korre U. 4. Borolinstsikov A. 26. Siht R. 8. Musolitin O. 10. Ivanov N. (C) 21. Baptista T. 17. Lotar Eyang E. E. 27. Mannilaan M.	1. Zahharov M. (G) 16. Kondrattsev S. (C) 5. Campagna C. 14. Filatov A. 4. Ivanyushin A. 22. Zuravljov E. 48. Awusi W. 3. Berardozzi T. 7. Velijev M. 10. Gero A. 24. Betancor Y.
Substitutes
52. Idalecio 30. Jabir I. 79. Jekimov F. 96. Kindel J. (G) 22. Nikolajev A. 1. Perk H. (G) 88. Sotsugov D. 20. Tambedou M.	47. Baljabkin N. 88. Besigirskis A. 19. Elysee 23. Jegorov A. 28. Miranda da Silva K. 40. Pavlov V. 66. Petkus E. 39. Poliakov D. 17. Skinjov A. 6. Slein G. 30. Venteo I. (G)
Coaches
Andreev N.	Campana D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Mannilaan M. ⚽, Borolinstsikov A. (A),
37', Mannilaan M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
66', Zuravljov E. ↓, Baljabkin N. ↑,
66', Lotar Eyang E. E. ↓, Jabir I. ↑,
66', Kondrattsev S. ↓, Petkus E. ↑,
72', Ivanov N. 🟨,
75', Awusi W. 🟨,
80', Ivanov N. ↓, Tambedou M. ↑,
80', Baptista T. ↓, Jekimov F. ↑,
82', Velijev M. ↓, Besigirskis A. ↑,
84', Siht R. 🟨,
84', Campagna C. ↓, Miranda da Silva K. ↑,
84', Awusi W. ↓, Slein G. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 0, Jabir I. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nõmme Kalju won 3.

Nõmme Kalju is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Narva Trans is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Nõmme Kalju is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nõmme Kalju won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 30:19. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Nõmme Kalju won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:6. (average 1.8:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Kalju	29	15	5	9	52:27	25	50
10	Narva	29	5	4	20	22:65	-43	19

Last Results with these Odds

Nõmme Kalju - the odds 1.47 are the expected chance of winning is 62.29%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nõmme Kalju FC
Estonian Meistriliiga
08.09.26	Nõmme Kalju - Nõmme United	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	2:1 ✺
30.08.26	Nõmme Kalju - Levadia Tallinn	2:3 ✺
Estonian Cup
26.08.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju	2:0 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
22.08.26	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme Kalju	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Narva Trans
Estonian Meistriliiga
08.09.26	Narva Trans - Flora Tallinn	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Kuressaare - Narva Trans	3:1 ✺
30.08.26	Narva Trans - Tammeka	0:2 ✺
Estonian Cup
26.08.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju	2:0 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
21.08.26	Levadia Tallinn - Narva Trans	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Cup
26.08.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju	2:0
Estonian Meistriliiga
08.08.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju	0:2
01.05.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju	0:3
03.04.26	Nõmme Kalju - Narva Trans	2:1
17.09.25	Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju	0:0
17.08.25	Nõmme Kalju - Narva Trans	1:2
15.06.25	Nõmme Kalju - Narva Trans	2:0

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