Match Info

Nakotnes liga - Round 16

Date: 9 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija (Ogre)


	Ogre United		JFK Ventspils

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.75	3.9
	1.65	3.8	4.05
	1.62	3.94	4.61	Watch
	1.66	3.9	4.16
	1.63	3.64	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.65)	3.81 ↑ (3.8)	4.11 ↑ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ogre United
54.6%

Draw
23.6%

JFK Ventspils
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

23.6%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.2%

22.8%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ogre United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

JFK Ventspils has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ogre United than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for JFK Ventspils than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Ogre United - JFK Ventspils Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Biscuhis K. (G) 5. Hayashi K. 10. Kalnins M. 6. Karklins K. (C) 7. Kumakura K. 4. Mamich D. 3. Marusiy T. 16. Mashchenko V. 9. Silagailis H. 88. Stepanovs V. 2. Ziemelis R.	1. Petrovs A. (C) 20. Dembele M. 22. Essennouni Y. 5. Feldmans M. 27. Gueye B. 6. Hounlete P. 23. Lucins A. 9. Markovs K. 32. Rungis A. 29. Solomonovs N. 15. Veidemanis R.
Substitutes
13. Gulbis K. 30. Hvoinickis D. 19. Jamonts K. 14. Juhnovics R. 11. Pacepko M. 1. Perkons E. (G) 21. Salins D. 8. Skujins R. 22. Sprukulis K.	7. Aliyu A. 14. Bojaruns V. 11. Gaisins J. 26. Lengvenis M. 16. Mukaev A. (G) 28. Psenicins R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, ⚽,
39', 🟨,
39', 🟨,
39', 🟨,
45+1', 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', 🟨,
53', 2 - 0, ⚽,
64', 3 - 0, ⚽,
66', 🟥,
85', 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 and 4).

Ogre United is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

JFK Ventspils has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, JFK Ventspils has had a series of home games.

In this match, Ogre United is the team to beat.

We predict that Ogre United will win today's game, with odds of 1.67.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ogre United won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Ogre United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ogre United
Latvian 1 Liga
03.08.25	Olaine - Ogre United	0:4 ✺
26.07.25	Ogre United - Leevon PPK	4:1 ✺
18.07.25	Ogre United - Mārupe	3:1 ✺
05.07.25	Skanstes - Ogre United	2:1 ✺
28.06.25	Ogre United - Riga 2	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWWLW
- JFK Ventspils
Latvian 1 Liga
02.08.25	JFK Ventspils - Rēzekne	1:1 ✺
26.07.25	JFK Ventspils - Olaine	5:0 ✺
19.07.25	JFK Ventspils - Leevon PPK	0:0 ✺
Latvian Cup
12.07.25	JFK Ventspils - Liepāja	0:2 ✺
Latvian 1 Liga
05.07.25	Mārupe - JFK Ventspils	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
13.04.25	JFK Ventspils - Ogre United	1:1
21.09.24	Ogre United - JFK Ventspils	3:2
19.05.24	JFK Ventspils - Ogre United	2:0

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