Match Info

ENGLAND: NATIONAL LEAGUE - ROUND 23

Date: 11 December 2022, Sunday

Location: Boundary Park (Oldham)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Oldham Athletic		Torquay United

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.5	2.8
	2.2	3.1	2.9
	2.23	3.25	3.05
	2.3	3.25	2.85
	2.29	3.4	3.18
	2.25	3.1	3
	2.27	3.32	3.05
	2.32	3.3	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (1.83)	3.28 ↓ (3.42)	2.97 ↓ (4.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oldham Athletic
40.6%

Draw
28.2%

Torquay United
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

26.9%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

26.7%

22.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oldham Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Oldham Athletic's form might have worsened.

Torquay United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Torquay United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oldham Athletic than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Oldham Athletic, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Torquay United than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Torquay United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	12.5%	37.5%

Oldham Athletic - Torquay United Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Oldham will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Torquay will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Oldham: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation and 21 in the zone Relegation).

Oldham has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Torquay is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Oldham could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Oldham have a series of guest games.

Oldham will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Oldham won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oldham Athletic
English National League
06.12.22	Boreham Wood - Oldham Athletic	2:1 ✺
03.12.22	Solihull Moors - Oldham Athletic	2:1 ✺
19.11.22	Maidstone United - Oldham Athletic	0:0 ✺
12.11.22	Oldham Athletic - Barnet	0:2 ✺
English FA Cup
06.11.22	Wrexham - Oldham Athletic	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLL
- Torquay United
English National League
03.12.22	Dagenham & Redbridge - Torquay United	0:1 ✺
26.11.22	Torquay United - Gateshead	1:1 ✺
19.11.22	Barnet - Torquay United	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
15.11.22	Derby County - Torquay United	5:0 ✺
English National League
12.11.22	Torquay United - Chesterfield	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League
06.08.22	Torquay United - Oldham Athletic	0:0

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