Match Info

Torneo Federal - Winners stage - Round 5

Date: 17 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti (Bahía Blanca)


	Olimpo Bahia Blanca		Costa Brava

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.1	4.33
	1.72	3.05	4.95	Watch
	1.74	2.91	4.99
	2.00	2.87	4.41	Watch
	1.77	3.1	4.74
	1.79	3.29	4.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.75)	3.05 ↓ (3.15)	4.67 ↑ (4.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
50.7%

Draw
29.8%

Costa Brava
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

28.4%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

27.7%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olimpo Bahia Blanca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Costa Brava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olimpo Bahia Blanca than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Costa Brava than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Costa Brava Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lungarzo J. (G) 8. Amarilla C. 6. Ferreyra M. 11. Groba G. 2. Moiraghi N. 9. Murialdo A. 7. Prost M. 10. Ramirez D. 3. Vega G. 5. Villagra N. 4. Vivas J.	1. Silva L. (G) 2. Aguero P. 6. Alferez B. 10. Alles A. 9. Amieva J. 4. Garoni J. 5. Lara M. 8. Lopez A. 3. Pacheco N. 11. Rivas M. 7. Vivani J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Moiraghi N. ⚽,
24', Rivas M. 🟨,
39', 🟨,
39', Murialdo A. 🟥,
39', Alferez B. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
66', Ramirez D. ↓, Ojeda M. ↑,
66', Prost M. ↓, Villacorta F. ↑,
72', 2 - 0, Villacorta F. ⚽,
78', Vivas J. ↓, Oneto T. ↑,
78', Amarilla C. ↓, Coacci E. ↑,
87', Groba G. ↓, Espejo L. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Play Offs: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Promotion ~ Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Olimpo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Olimpo is the team to beat.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Argentinian Torneo Federal
10.08.25	Villa Mitre - Olimpo Bahia Blanca	1:1 ✺
03.08.25	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Deportivo Rincón	0:0 ✺
25.07.25	Kimberley de Mar del Plata - Olimpo Bahia Blanca	0:1 ✺
20.07.25	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Argentino Monte Maíz	2:1 ✺
13.07.25	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Cipolletti	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TTWWL
- CA Costa Brava
Argentinian Torneo Federal
10.08.25	Costa Brava - Atenas Río Cuarto	1:1 ✺
02.08.25	Ciudad de Bolívar - Costa Brava	0:0 ✺
20.07.25	Costa Brava - Villa Mitre	1:0 ✺
13.07.25	Costa Brava - Gutiérrez de Mendoza	3:0 ✺
30.06.25	Atenas Río Cuarto - Costa Brava	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TTWWL

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