Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 17 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium (Piraeus)

Referee: Kovacs I. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Olympiacos Piraeus		Paphos

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.75	7.5
	1.46	4.33	6.5
	1.41	4.8	8.3
	1.47	4.65	7.08
	1.39	4.81	7.33	Watch
	1.46	4.92	7.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.45)	4.71 ↑ (4.47)	7.44 ↑ (7.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympiacos Piraeus
66.8%

Draw
20.3%

Paphos
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.7%

21.3%

12.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.3%

22.2%

12.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympiacos Piraeus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

The chances for Paphos have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympiacos Piraeus than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.1%	11.5%	16.4%

Olympiacos Piraeus - Paphos Predictions

Users Predictions: 58 users predict this event. Olympiacos will win (votes: 41 - 70.7%). Paphos will win (votes: 10 - 17.2%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 12.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Olympiacos: 59% – 82.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 30 Selected Experts predict this event. Olympiacos (votes: 17 - 56.7%). Paphos (votes: 6 - 20%). Tie (votes: 7 - 23.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Paphos (2.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Paphos (3.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (7.16) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 32 Selected Experts predict this event. Olympiacos (votes: 17 - 53.1%). Paphos (votes: 8 - 25%). Tie (votes: 7 - 21.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Paschalakis A. (G) 23. Rodinei 45. Retsos P. (C) 5. Pirola L. 3. Ortega F. 14. Garcia D. 32. Hezze S. 27. Strefezza G. 22. Chiquinho 56. Podence D. 9. El Kaabi A.	93. Michail N. (G) 23. Luckassen D. 4. David Luiz 5. Goldar D. (C) 77. Correia J. 88. Pepe 26. Sunjic I. 30. Dragomir V. 7. Bruno 11. Jaja 10. Dimata L.
Substitutes
4. Biancone G. 20. Costinha 91. Exarchos A. (G) 6. Kalogeropoulos A. 61. Kouraklis G. (G) 96. Mouzakitis C. 8. Nascimento D. 70. Onyemaechi B. 80. Pnevmonidis S. 16. Scipioni L. 99. Taremi M.	33. Anderson Silva 1. Gorter J. (G) 25. Langa B. 17. Orsic M. 82. Petrou P. (G) 2. Pileas K. 8. Quina D. 12. Sema K.
Coaches
Mendilibar J. L.	Carcedo J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Bruno 🟨,
20', Garcia D. 🟨,
26', Bruno 🟨,
33', David Luiz ↓, Pileas K. ↑,
33', Dimata L. ↓, Orsic M. ↑,
36', Pirola L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Strefezza G. ↓, Taremi M. ↑,
46', Garcia D. ↓, Mouzakitis C. ↑,
61', Rodinei ↓, Costinha ↑,
71', Taremi M. 🟨,
75', Hezze S. ↓, Pnevmonidis S. ↑,
75', Pirola L. ↓, Biancone G. ↑,
76', Jaja ↓, Sema K. ↑,
76', Correia J. ↓, Langa B. ↑,
85', Dragomir V. ↓, Anderson Silva ↑,
88', Langa B. 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Olympiacos have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Paphos is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Olympiacos is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Olympiacos: Angelakis K. (Inactive) Cabella R. (Inactive) Gustavo Mancha (Inactive) Tzolakis K. (Red Card) Vezo R. (Inactive) Yaremchuk R. (Calf Injury) Yazici Y. (Inactive)

There will not play in Paphos: Brito A. (Inactive) Odefalk W. (Inactive) Papadoudis A. (Inactive) Pedrao (Inactive)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Olympiacos Piraeus
Greek Super League
13.09.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - Panserraikos	5:0 ✺
30.08.25	Volos - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - Asteras Tripolis	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.25	Inter Milan - Olympiacos Piraeus	2:0 ✺
14.08.25	Napoli - Olympiacos Piraeus	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWWLL
- Paphos FC
Cypriot First Division
13.09.25	Paphos - Apollon Limassol	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	APOEL - Paphos	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.08.25	Paphos - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:1 ✺
19.08.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Paphos	1:2 ✺
12.08.25	Paphos - Dynamo Kyiv	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 LWTWW

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