Match Info

Copa Colombia - First stage - Play Offs - Final

Date: 30 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Palogrande (Manizales)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Fanatiz


	Once Caldas		Patriotas

	1	X	2
	1.29	5	11	Watch
	1.88	3.2	3.6
	1.42	3.8	6.9
	1.26	4.75	10.88
	1.91	3.2	3.9
	1.45	3.7	8.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.52)	3.94 ↑ (3.82)	7.41 ↑ (6.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Once Caldas
62.6%

Draw
24.4%

Patriotas
13%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.4%

24.4%

14.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.4%

24%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Once Caldas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Patriotas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Patriotas than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Once Caldas - Patriotas Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Once Caldas will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Patriotas will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Once Caldas: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 - Once Caldas (3.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Once Caldas will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Once Caldas (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Zapata Ramirez J. A. ⚽,
45+1', 2 - 0, Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. ⚽,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
49', 3 - 0, Moreno D. ⚽,
82', 4 - 0, Zuleta M. ⚽,
87', 5 - 0, Navarro E. ⚽,
90+1', 6 - 0, Castano J. ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 1.

Once Caldas has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Patriotas is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Patriotas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Once Caldas is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 21:22. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Once Caldas won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Once Caldas
Colombian Primera A
26.07.25	Once Caldas - Junior Barranquilla	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.07.25	Once Caldas - San Antonio Bulo Bulo	4:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
20.07.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Once Caldas	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.07.25	San Antonio Bulo Bulo - Once Caldas	0:3 ✺
Colombian Primera A
11.07.25	Once Caldas - Atlético Nacional	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TWLWL
- Patriotas FC
Colombian Primera B
26.07.25	Barranquilla - Patriotas	3:1 ✺
21.07.25	Patriotas - Real Cundinamarca	2:1 ✺
13.07.25	Cúcuta Deportivo - Patriotas	2:0 ✺
22.06.25	Jaguares de Córdoba - Patriotas	3:0 ✺
18.06.25	Patriotas - Jaguares de Córdoba	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
19.08.24	Patriotas - Once Caldas	3:1
14.02.24	Once Caldas - Patriotas	1:0
15.08.22	Once Caldas - Patriotas	1:1
17.02.22	Patriotas - Once Caldas	0:0
31.10.21	Once Caldas - Patriotas	1:1
13.04.21	Patriotas - Once Caldas	1:1
09.12.20	Once Caldas - Patriotas	2:0

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