Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 20

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Oriental de La Paz		Atletico Fenix Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.70	2.87	2.45
	2.8	2.75	2.45
	3.05	2.98	2.57
	3.05	2.8	2.6	Watch
	2.95	2.6	2.5
	3.02	2.66	2.49
	2.8	2.8	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.8)	2.78 ↓ (3.1)	2.5 ↑ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Oriental de La Paz
31.1%

Draw
32.6%

Atletico Fenix Montevideo
36.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

28.8%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

29.4%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oriental de La Paz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Atletico Fenix Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oriental de La Paz than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atletico Fenix Montevideo than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Oriental de La Paz - Atletico Fenix Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Oriental will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Rigoleto M. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
52', 1 - 1, Fernandez F. ⚽,
61', 1 - 2, ⚽,
89', 2 - 2, ⚽,
90+7', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 4th and 7th).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Oriental could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Fenix has had a run of games away from home.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Fenix holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Oriental has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:5 (averaging 1.2:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Oriental against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 3:0 goals (averaging 1.5:0 per game).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Oriental	21	8	8	5	29:22	7	32
7	Fenix	21	7	8	6	27:24	3	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oriental de La Paz
Uruguayan Segunda Division
20.09.26	Rentistas - Oriental de La Paz	0:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
17.09.26	Central Español - Oriental de La Paz	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
11.09.26	Oriental de La Paz - Miramar Misiones	1:3 ✺
06.09.26	Tacuarembó - Oriental de La Paz	0:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
03.09.26	Oriental de La Paz - Racing Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WTLWL
- Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Uruguay Copa
23.09.26	Boston River - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	3:2 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
19.09.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Colón Montevideo	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	River Plate Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Rentistas - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
01.09.26	Colón Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
20.06.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Oriental de La Paz	2:2
02.05.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Oriental de La Paz	1:0
30.08.25	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Oriental de La Paz	2:1
07.06.25	Oriental de La Paz - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:0
29.03.25	Oriental de La Paz - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:0

Upcoming Matches