Match Info

Copa Colombia - First stage - Round 3

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata (Barrancabermeja) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Colombia	20:00	Win+ Futbol, Win Sports


	Orsomarso		Independiente Medellín

	1	X	2
	3	3.4	2.05	Watch
	2.98	3.35	2.18	Watch
	3.11	3.56	2.19
	3.02	3.7	2.16	Watch
	3.1	3.25	2.05
	3.13	3.54	2.14	Watch
	3.35	3.5	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↓ (3.35)	3.47 ↓ (3.5)	2.11 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orsomarso
29.8%

Draw
26.6%

Independiente Medellín
43.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27.7%

26.5%

45.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.7%

25.5%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orsomarso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orsomarso than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	12.5%	6.2%

Orsomarso - Independiente Medellín Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Orsomarso will win (votes: 13 - 81.3%). Ind Medellín will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Orsomarso: 62.2% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Orsomarso (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Orsomarso (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Orsomarso (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Orsomarso (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
27', 1 - 0, Arrechea S. ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, Montano J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Orsomarso has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ind Medellín is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Ind Medellín may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Ind Medellín has had a series of home games.

Ind Medellín could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Orsomarso SC
Colombian Copa
12.05.26	Leones - Orsomarso	2:0 ✺
09.05.26	Orsomarso - Cúcuta Deportivo	1:1 ✺
Colombian Primera B
18.04.26	Orsomarso - Leones	0:0 ✺
13.04.26	Bogotá - Orsomarso	2:0 ✺
30.03.26	Orsomarso - Internacional de Palmira	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LTTLL
- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Copa
11.05.26	Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.26	Independiente Medellín - Flamengo	Abandoned ✺
Colombian Primera A
03.05.26	Independiente Medellín - Rionegro Águilas	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Cusco	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
25.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 W?LWW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
01.11.26	Independiente Medellín - Alianza Valledupar	✺
28.10.26	Inter Bogotá - Independiente Medellín	✺

Orsomarso - Independiente Medellín