The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Leones 35.9%
Draw 29.4%
Orsomarso 34.7%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
42.4%
28.3%
29.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
43.7%
27.5%
28.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Leones has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leones's form might have worsened.
Orsomarso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Orsomarso's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones than the current prediction. (+7.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leones, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orsomarso than the current prediction. (-6.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Orsomarso, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
0%
0%
Leones - Orsomarso Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 15th and 14th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones won 2.
Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Leones has recorded 12 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 33:14 (averaging 1.7:0.7 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Leones against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 18:3 goals (averaging 1.8:0.3 per game).
Standings
Clausura
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
14
Orsomarso
14
3
5
6
9:13
-4
14
15
Leones
14
3
5
6
11:20
-9
14
Last Results with these Odds
Orsomarso - the odds 3.18 are the expected chance of winning is 29.23%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.