Match Info

Primera B - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 13 April 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Metropolitano de Techo (Bogotá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Bogotá		Orsomarso

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.6	3.6	5.3	Watch
	2	3.46	4.72
	1.62	3.68	5.6	Watch
	1.6	3.3	5
	1.57	3.55	5.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (2.26)	3.52 ↑ (2.96)	5.24 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 0.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bogotá
55.6%

Draw
26.5%

Orsomarso
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

30.8%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.7%

31%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bogotá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bogotá's performance.

Orsomarso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Orsomarso might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bogotá than the current prediction. (-14.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bogotá that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orsomarso than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Orsomarso could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Bogotá - Orsomarso Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Bogotá will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bogotá (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Bogotá (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bogotá (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Aguilar A. (G) 36. Canizalez S. 99. Castillo D. 6. Castro K. 32. Gutierrez A. 13. Moreno Abadia J. C. 30. Moreno F. (C) 7. Mosquera C. 33. Perez J. 5. Sanchez J. 11. Sandoval Lasso H.	1. Arango H. (G) 9. Arrechea S. 13. Barreiro J. 5. Barrios D. 7. Girado S. 20. Gomez L. 4. Lasso M. 14. Martinez E. 10. Ruiz A. 3. Salinas J. 25. Villareal A.
Substitutes
14. Alfonso A. 15. Baena J. 10. Castro B. 18. Cuero B. 16. Jefferson R. 28. Medina M. 21. Montien D. 1. Osorno J. (G) 9. Perea S.	34. Aragon A. 32. Gonzalez S. 12. Grisales J. (G) 17. Hernandez J. 29. Martinez S. 18. Valoyes Y. 8. Zarante

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Castillo D. ⚽,
45+3', Ruiz A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Martinez E. ↓, Hernandez J. ↑,
55', Gomez L. 🟨,
55', Villareal A. ↓, Valoyes Y. ↑,
55', Ruiz A. ↓, Zarante ↑,
62', Sandoval Lasso H. ↓, Castro B. ↑,
67', Canizalez S. 🟨,
74', Perez J. ↓, Alfonso A. ↑,
74', Girado S. ↓, Aragon A. ↑,
84', Salinas J. 🟨,
86', Castillo D. ↓, Medina M. ↑,
86', Sanchez J. ↓, Cuero B. ↑,
89', Aguilar A. 🟨,
90', 2 - 0, Castro B. ⚽,
90+4', Moreno F. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bogotá won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Bogotá could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Bogotá won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:25. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Bogotá won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:10. (average 2.2:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Bogota	11	3	3	5	9:13	-4	12
14	Orsomarso	11	2	4	5	7:11	-4	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bogotá FC
Colombian Primera B
01.04.26	Bogotá - Real Cundinamarca	2:2 ✺
25.03.26	Envigado - Bogotá	1:2 ✺
20.03.26	Bogotá - Deportes Quindío	0:2 ✺
16.03.26	Barranquilla - Bogotá	1:1 ✺
11.03.26	Bogotá - Tigres	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 TWLTL
- Orsomarso SC
Colombian Primera B
30.03.26	Orsomarso - Internacional de Palmira	1:2 ✺
26.03.26	Deportes Quindío - Orsomarso	2:2 ✺
21.03.26	Orsomarso - Independiente Valle del Cauca	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Orsomarso - Real Santander	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Atlético Cali - Orsomarso	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
15.07.25	Orsomarso - Bogotá	1:1
01.02.25	Bogotá - Orsomarso	2:2
22.10.24	Bogotá - Orsomarso	2:3
12.05.24	Orsomarso - Bogotá	2:0
25.09.23	Orsomarso - Bogotá	2:0
19.04.23	Bogotá - Orsomarso	3:0
23.09.22	Bogotá - Orsomarso	1:0

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