Match Info

JAPAN: YBC Levain Cup - First stage - 1/64-finals

Date: 26 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Hanazono Rugby Stadium (Higashiosaka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	Fuji TV Two


	Osaka		Júbilo Iwata

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.75	1.65	Watch
	4.5	3.5	1.63
	4.5	3.85	1.7	Watch
	4.62	4.01	1.67	Watch
	4.75	3.5	1.67
	4.93	3.84	1.66	Watch
	4.2	3.7	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.51 ↓ (5.6)	3.74 ↓ (3.8)	1.68 ↑ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osaka
20.4%

Draw
24.6%

Júbilo Iwata
55%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.4%

24.1%

59.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.5%

25.5%

63%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Júbilo Iwata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Osaka than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Júbilo Iwata could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Osaka - Júbilo Iwata Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Osaka will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Iwata will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
68. Hirabuki G. (G) 13. Mima K. 5. Minakuchi Y. 4. Yamashita R. 6. Tachino S. 10. Kubo R. 8. Haga A. 14. Sumida S. 20. Horikoshi D. 51. Nishimura M. 39. Mochizuki S.	21. Miura R. (G) 26. Nishikubo S. 32. Hilu H. 3. Morioka R. 2. Kawasaki I. 16. Leo Gomes 6. Kaneko D. 8. Tameda H. 20. Sato R. 33. Kawai T. 9. Watanabe R.
Substitutes
22. Hayashida K. 7. Kitsui T. 26. Lee Dong-Yeol 88. Matsumoto K. 18. Natsukawa Y. 27. Sawazaki R. 29. Shin Dong-min 31. Sugawara H. (G) 37. Tsutsumi S.	46. Ishizuka R. 45. Kai Y. 71. Masui K. 4. Matsubara K. 28. Nishizawa T. (G) 35. Park S. 39. Sumi K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Sato R. ⚽,
17', Haga A. 🟨,
22', 1 - 1, Nishimura M. ⚽,
23', Mima K. ↓, Tsutsumi S. ↑,
45+3', Kawai T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Haga A. ↓, Sawazaki R. ↑,
46', Horikoshi D. ↓, Natsukawa Y. ↑,
52', 1 - 2, Kawai T. ⚽,
55', Tachino S. 🟨,
57', Morioka R. 🟨,
66', Morioka R. ↓, Matsubara K. ↑,
66', Sato R. ↓, Sumi K. ↑,
74', Watanabe R. ↓, Masui K. ↑,
74', Kubo R. ↓, Lee Dong-Yeol ↑,
79', Matsubara K. 🟨,
82', Mochizuki S. ↓, Matsumoto K. ↑,
90', Kawai T. ↓, Ishizuka R. ↑,
90+5', Matsumoto K. 🟨,

Preview

Osaka is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Iwata is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Iwata is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Osaka
Japan J3 League
23.03.25	Osaka - Zweigen Kanazawa	1:0 ✺
16.03.25	Tochigi - Osaka	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Osaka - Gainare Tottori	1:0 ✺
02.03.25	Kochi United - Osaka	1:2 ✺
22.02.25	Ryūkyū - Osaka	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLWWW
- Júbilo Iwata
Japan J2 League
23.03.25	Vegalta Sendai - Júbilo Iwata	2:3 ✺
15.03.25	Júbilo Iwata - Ventforet Kofu	2:1 ✺
09.03.25	Kataller Toyama - Júbilo Iwata	3:1 ✺
01.03.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Júbilo Iwata	1:0 ✺
22.02.25	Júbilo Iwata - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWLLW

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