Match Info

ENGLAND: NATIONAL LEAGUE - ROUND 42

Date: 29 March 2024, Friday


	Oxford City		Wealdstone

	1	X	2
	5.5	4.2	1.57
	4.75	3.9	1.53
	5	4.33	1.57
	5.45	4.43	1.54
	5.45	4.43	1.55
	3.9	3.9	1.7
	5.09	4.3	1.54
	5	4.2	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.02 ↑ (3.2)	4.21 ↑ (3.55)	1.56 ↓ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford City
18.5%

Draw
22.1%

Wealdstone
59.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

26.2%

44.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

27.1%

46.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Oxford City's form might have worsened.

Wealdstone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Wealdstone's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oxford City than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Oxford City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wealdstone than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Wealdstone, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	0%	62.5%

Oxford City - Wealdstone Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Oxford City will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Wealdstone will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wealdstone: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Watson T. (G) 4. Ashby J. 2. Burley A. 7. Coyle L. 8. Fleet R. (C) 11. Greenslade H. 25. Krasniqi E. 22. Moore T. 29. O'Connell C. 14. Parker J. 3. Phillips G.	31. Dewhurst M. (G) 7. Allarakhia T. 3. Barker C. 22. Bowen S. 21. Cesay K. 2. Cook J. (C) 19. De Silva D. 5. Dyer A. 10. Kretzschmar M. 23. Mundle-Smith J. 14. Obiero M.
Substitutes
21. Birtwistle H. 20. Humphrey-Ewers L. 23. Kabongolo B. 12. Roberts M. 6. Roddy J.	39. Adeyemo T. 9. Duku I. 8. Ferguson N. 26. Henry A. 32. Mason B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Fleet R. 🟨,
24', 1 - 0, Parker J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', De Silva D. ↓, Duku I. ↑,
65', Burley A. ↓, Birtwistle H. ↑,
65', Kretzschmar M. ↓, Adeyemo T. ↑,
66', Obiero M. ↓, Mason B. ↑,
83', Greenslade H. ↓, Roddy J. ↑,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation and 16).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Oxford City won 3.

Oxford City has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Wealdstone is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Oxford City could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Wealdstone is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Oxford City won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 19-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Oxford City won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford City
English National League
23.03.24	Fylde - Oxford City	2:1 ✺
17.03.24	Oxford City - Halifax Town	0:2 ✺
12.03.24	Chesterfield - Oxford City	2:0 ✺
09.03.24	Rochdale - Oxford City	2:2 ✺
02.03.24	Oxford City - Aldershot Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLLTL
- Wealdstone
English National League
26.03.24	Altrincham - Wealdstone	4:1 ✺
23.03.24	Wealdstone - Kidderminster Harriers	1:1 ✺
20.03.24	Wealdstone - Bromley	0:1 ✺
16.03.24	Fylde - Wealdstone	1:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
09.03.24	Wealdstone - Solihull Moors	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League
24.10.23	Wealdstone - Oxford City	3:1
English National League South
04.01.20	Oxford City - Wealdstone	3:2
07.09.19	Wealdstone - Oxford City	1:0
29.12.18	Wealdstone - Oxford City	0:2
27.08.18	Oxford City - Wealdstone	3:0
26.04.18	Wealdstone - Oxford City	1:1
18.11.17	Oxford City - Wealdstone	3:2

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