Match Info

ENGLAND: NATIONAL LEAGUE - ROUND 38

Date: 9 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Spotland Stadium (Rochdale)


	Rochdale		Oxford City

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.5	8.5
	1.35	4.6	6.75
	1.33	5	8.5
	1.36	5.18	8.07
	1.36	5.18	8.07
	1.34	4.95	7.65
	1.32	4.9	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.61)	4.9 ↑ (3.88)	7.82 ↑ (4.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rochdale
69.1%

Draw
19%

Oxford City
11.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

23.6%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

18.6%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rochdale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rochdale's performance.

Oxford City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Oxford City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (-24.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rochdale that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oxford City than the current prediction. (+12.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Oxford City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Rochdale - Oxford City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Brooks T. (G) 4. East R. 6. Ebanks-Landell E. 20. Gilmour H. 2. Gordon K. 18. Hayes C. 3. John C. 25. Mather S. 9. Mitchell K. 15. Nevett G. 11. Uchegbulam J.	26. Watson T. (G) 4. Ashby J. 21. Birtwistle H. 2. Burley A. 7. Coyle L. 11. Greenslade H. 20. Humphrey-Ewers L. 5. Kirby N. 28. O'Connell C. 14. Parker J. 3. Phillips G.
Substitutes
8. Clayton A. 40. Henderson I. 13. Keohane J. 10. Rodney D. 19. Sassi D.	8. Fleet R. 23. Kabongolo B. 27. Lumeka L. 16. Potter A. 6. Roddy J.

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 14 and 24 in the zone Relegation).

Rochdale is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Oxford City has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Oxford City could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Rochdale is absolute favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Rochdale won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rochdale AFC
English National League
05.03.24	Barnet - Rochdale	2:0 ✺
02.03.24	Ebbsfleet United - Rochdale	2:1 ✺
27.02.24	Rochdale - Wealdstone	3:0 ✺
24.02.24	Chesterfield - Rochdale	2:2 ✺
17.02.24	Rochdale - Solihull Moors	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LLWTL
- Oxford City
English National League
02.03.24	Oxford City - Aldershot Town	1:2 ✺
24.02.24	Gateshead - Oxford City	4:0 ✺
20.02.24	Oxford City - Eastleigh	2:5 ✺
17.02.24	Oxford City - Southend United	0:0 ✺
10.02.24	Dagenham & Redbridge - Oxford City	7:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English National League
12.08.23	Oxford City - Rochdale	0:1

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