Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Final

Date: 28 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Toumba Stadium (Thessaloniki)

Referee: Sanchez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Croatia	MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Greece	Open TV
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Slovakia	Arena sport 2


	PAOK		Rijeka

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.1	7	Watch
	1.55	3.8	6.25
	1.46	4.15	6.9	Watch
	1.49	4.18	7.29
	1.45	4.22	7.39	Watch
	1.5	3.5	6
	1.51	4.23	7.33
	1.39	3.91	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.39)	4.01 ↑ (3.98)	6.87 ↑ (6.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

PAOK
63.2%

Draw
23.2%

Rijeka
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.2%

22.4%

13.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.3%

21.1%

12.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

PAOK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Rijeka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for PAOK than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for PAOK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rijeka than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.6%	9.8%	21.6%

PAOK - Rijeka Predictions

Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. PAOK will win (votes: 34 - 72.3%). Rijeka will win (votes: 10 - 21.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 6.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PAOK: 59.5% – 85.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. PAOK (votes: 14 - 60.9%). Rijeka (votes: 6 - 26.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 8 - 88.9%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTS - no (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

TQ, OT - PAOK (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. PAOK (votes: 15 - 62.5%). Rijeka (votes: 6 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pavlenka J. (G) 3. Kenny J. 16. Kedziora T. 5. Michailidis G. 21. Baba A. R. 8. Meite S. 27. Ozdoev M. 77. Despodov K. 65. Konstantelias G. 14. Zivkovic A. (C) 9. Chalov F.	13. Zlomislic M. (C) 45. Majstorovic A. 6. Radeljic S. 34. Devetak M. 23. Lasickas J. 8. Petrovic D. 26. Dantas T. 22. Orec A. 17. Menalo L. 4. Jankovic N. 10. Fruk T.
Substitutes
2. Camara M. 52. Chatsidis D. 7. Giakoumakis G. 88. Gugeshashvili L. (G) 18. Ivanusec L. 6. Lovren D. 10. Pelkas D. 23. Sastre J. 11. Taison 32. Taylor G. 99. Tsiftsis A. (G) 33. Tsopouroglou D.	30. Bogojevic B. 27. Butic S. 9. Cop D. 14. Gojak A. 51. Husic A. 21. Ilinkovic S. 77. Juric A. 2. Kitin L. 1. Kovac V. (G) 11. Rukavina G. 25. Thaqi D. 99. Todorovic A. (G)
Coaches
Lucescu R.	Djalovic R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Meite S. ⚽, Zivkovic A. (A),
25', 2 - 0, Konstantelias G. ⚽, Meite S. (A),
34', Majstorovic A. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
56', 3 - 0, Chalov F. ⚽, Konstantelias G. (A),
60', Menalo L. ↓, Cop D. ↑,
60', Orec A. ↓, Butic S. ↑,
69', Chalov F. ↓, Giakoumakis G. ↑,
69', Despodov K. ↓, Taison ↑,
71', Majstorovic A. 🟨,
75', Dantas T. ↓, Husic A. ↑,
77', 4 - 0, Giakoumakis G. ⚽, Konstantelias G. (A),
79', Konstantelias G. ↓, Pelkas D. ↑,
80', Ozdoev M. ↓, Camara M. ↑,
80', Zivkovic A. ↓, Ivanusec L. ↑,
84', Fruk T. ↓, Bogojevic B. ↑,
89', 5 - 0, Pelkas D. ⚽,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.

PAOK is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Rijeka's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, PAOK is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, PAOK won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, PAOK won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- PAOK FC
Greek Super League
24.08.25	PAOK - AEL Larissa	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
21.08.25	Rijeka - PAOK	1:0 ✺
14.08.25	Wolfsberger - PAOK	0:1 ET ✺
07.08.25	PAOK - Wolfsberger	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	NEC Nijmegen - PAOK	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLWTW
- HNK Rijeka
Croatian HNL
24.08.25	Rijeka - Varaždin	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
21.08.25	Rijeka - PAOK	1:0 ✺
Croatian HNL
16.08.25	Rijeka - Dinamo Zagreb	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.08.25	Shelbourne - Rijeka	1:3 ✺
Croatian HNL
09.08.25	Osijek - Rijeka	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
21.08.25	Rijeka - PAOK	1:0
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.08.21	Rijeka - PAOK	0:2
19.08.21	PAOK - Rijeka	1:1

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