Match Info

Serie B - Round 5

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Renzo Barbera (Palermo)

Referee: Di Bello M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Sport TV
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	DAZN Italia, Destination Calcio, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus
World	OneFootball TV


	Palermo		Padova

	1	X	2
	1.49	4	6	Watch
	1.55	4.10	5.50
	1.5	4.05	5.5	Watch
	1.6	4.32	5.8
	1.52	4.23	5.87	Watch
	1.54	4.2	5.65
	1.54	4.2	5.49	Watch
	1.54	4.2	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.52)	4.16 ↑ (4.13)	5.68 ↓ (5.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palermo
61%

Draw
22.5%

Padova
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

22.5%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.7%

21.7%

15.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palermo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Padova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Padova than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Palermo - Padova Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Palermo (votes: 1 - 100%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Palermo (1.53) (votes: 93%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Palermo will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Fortin M. (G) 27. Pierozzi N. 13. Bani M. (C) 32. Ceccaroni P. 3. Augello T. 8. Segre J. 10. Ranocchia F. 9. Vavassori D. 5. Palumbo A. 17. Johnsen D. 20. Pohjanpalo J.	22. Sorrentino A. (G) 27. Dellavalle A. 5. Lovato M. (C) 58. Pastina C. 17. Capelli A. 6. Giunti G. 21. Zuelli E. 8. Fusi P. 34. Cocchi M. 11. Seghetti A. 9. Moro L.
Substitutes
63. Balaguss N. (G) 93. Barba F. 33. Bozzolan A. 84. Cassandro T. 24. Estevez N. 99. Gabrielloni A. 6. Gomes C. 11. Gyasi E. 96. Magnani G. 36. Mazzitelli L. 12. Nespola M. (G) 29. Peda P.	20. Bortolussi M. 10. Caprari G. 24. Carissoni L. 23. Di Mariano F. 72. Faedo C. 25. Galazzi N. 15. Lasagna K. 1. Mouquet L. (G) 14. Pompetti M. 32. Sgarbi F. 18. Silletti E. 7. Varas K.
Coaches
Inzaghi F.	Calabro A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Pastina C. ⚽, Cocchi M. (A),
42', Pierozzi N. 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Vavassori D. ⚽, Johnsen D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Pierozzi N. ↓, Cassandro T. ↑,
46', Bani M. ↓, Magnani G. ↑,
53', Seghetti A. ↓, Di Mariano F. ↑,
61', Cocchi M. 🟨,
66', Ranocchia F. 🟨,
67', Ranocchia F. ↓, Estevez N. ↑,
69', Cocchi M. ↓, Carissoni L. ↑,
69', Moro L. ↓, Lasagna K. ↑,
76', Segre J. ↓, Gomes C. ↑,
82', Pohjanpalo J. ↓, Gabrielloni A. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Vavassori D. ⚽, Johnsen D. (A),
84', Zuelli E. ↓, Bortolussi M. ↑,
84', Giunti G. ↓, Galazzi N. ↑,
90+1', Carissoni L. 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palermo won 4.

Palermo is currently on a high with consecutive positive results (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Padova has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

In this matchup, Palermo is considered the favorite to take the win.

Confirmed absences for Palermo: Hernani (Injury) Joronen J. (Injury) Perin M. (Inactive) Strefezza G. (Injury).

Confirmed absences for Padova: Artistico G. (Inactive) Barreca A. (Inactive) Buonaiuto C. (Inactive) Papu Gomez (Ankle Injury) Zanimacchia L. (Inactive).

Our forecast points to a victory for Palermo in today's match, at odds of 1.52.

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Palermo has recorded 7 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:2 (averaging 1.5:0.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Palermo against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 4:1 goals (averaging 1:0.3 per game).

Outrights of Italian Serie B for now

Palermo: 42.72% Padova: 2.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Palermo	5	4	1	0	10:5	5	13
6	Padova	5	2	1	2	5:6	-1	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- U.S. Città di Palermo
Italian Serie B
13.09.26	Avellino - Palermo	1:1 ✺
07.09.26	Palermo - Sampdoria	3:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
03.09.26	Palermo - Mantova	5:2 ✺
Italian Serie B
30.08.26	Arezzo - Palermo	2:3 ✺
23.08.26	Palermo - Juve Stabia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TWWWW
- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie B
12.09.26	Padova - Ascoli	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Cremonese - Padova	3:1 ✺
29.08.26	Padova - Verona	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	Pisa - Padova	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
15.08.26	Udinese - Padova	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
21.03.26	Padova - Palermo	0:1
27.12.25	Palermo - Padova	1:0
Italian Serie C Group B
12.06.22	Palermo - Padova	1:0
05.06.22	Padova - Palermo	0:1
Italian Serie B
22.04.19	Palermo - Padova	1:1
08.12.18	Padova - Palermo	1:3
08.02.14	Palermo - Padova	1:0

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