Match Info

Coppa Italia - 1/16-finals

Date: 3 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadio Renzo Barbera (Palermo)

Referee: Di Marco D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Palermo		Mantova

	1	X	2
	1.57	4	5
	1.61	3.90	4.80
	1.62	3.85	5.4	Watch
	1.67	4.06	5.26
	1.62	4.01	5.1	Watch
	1.62	3.95	5.1
	1.64	4.02	5.17	Watch
	1.59	3.85	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.64)	3.96 ↓ (3.98)	5.07 ↑ (4.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palermo
57.9%

Draw
23.7%

Mantova
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

23.5%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61%

25.2%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palermo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Mantova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	6.7%	13.3%

Palermo - Mantova Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Palermo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Mantova (1.75) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Palermo will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Palermo (votes: 1 - 25%). Mantova (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Fortin M. (G) 84. Cassandro T. 96. Magnani G. 93. Barba F. 33. Bozzolan A. 6. Gomes C. (C) 24. Estevez N. 7. Strefezza G. 5. Palumbo A. 9. Vavassori D. 99. Gabrielloni A.	22. Bardi F. (G) 58. Del Lungo T. 29. Cella S. 27. Castellini A. 11. Cajazzo I. 21. Trimboli S. (C) 25. Ignacchiti L. 50. Benaissa-Yahia F. 71. Chinetti F. 8. Ilie R. 9. Gliozzi E.
Substitutes
3. Augello T. 13. Bani M. 32. Ceccaroni P. 23. Hernani 17. Johnsen D. 12. Nespola M. (G) 29. Peda P. 1. Perin M. (G) 27. Pierozzi N. 20. Pohjanpalo J. 10. Ranocchia F. 8. Segre J.	12. Gasparini M. (G) 1. Gemello L. (G) 18. Keita S. 75. Kospo E. 80. Kouda R. 6. Longonda J. 33. Marai C. 20. Paoletti F. 19. Ruocco F. 41. Silva J. 5. Tomasevic B. 99. Vlahovic V. 10. Wieser D.
Coaches
Inzaghi F.	Modesto F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Strefezza G. ⚽, Gomes C. (A),
14', Trimboli S. ↓, Kouda R. ↑,
43', Ilie R. 🟨,
45+6', 2 - 0, Palumbo A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', Cajazzo I. ↓, Ruocco F. ↑,
46', Chinetti F. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
46', Strefezza G. ↓, Johnsen D. ↑,
52', 2 - 1, Ruocco F. ⚽,
55', 2 - 2, Kouda R. ⚽, Ilie R. (A),
59', Gabrielloni A. 🟨,
60', Gliozzi E. ↓, Vlahovic V. ↑,
61', Gabrielloni A. ↓, Pohjanpalo J. ↑,
61', Palumbo A. ↓, Hernani ↑,
61', Magnani G. ↓, Peda P. ↑,
62', Ruocco F. 🟨,
70', 3 - 2, Pohjanpalo J. ⚽, Johnsen D. (A),
73', Gomes C. ↓, Segre J. ↑,
77', Del Lungo T. ↓, Tomasevic B. ↑,
89', 4 - 2, Johnsen D. ⚽, Segre J. (A),
90+5', 5 - 2, Pohjanpalo J. ⚽, Vavassori D. (A),

Preview

Palermo is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Mantova is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, Palermo is considered a favorite.

We predict that Palermo will win today's game, with odds of 1.63.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Palermo won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Palermo won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- U.S. Città di Palermo
Italian Serie B
30.08.26	Arezzo - Palermo	2:3 ✺
23.08.26	Palermo - Juve Stabia	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
17.08.26	Palermo - Lecce	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
11.08.26	Juventus - Palermo	2:0 ✺
07.08.26	Melbourne City - Palermo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWLW
- Mantova FC
Italian Serie B
30.08.26	Mantova - Empoli	3:1 ✺
22.08.26	Carrarese - Mantova	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
16.08.26	Lazio - Mantova	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
06.08.26	Legnago Salus - Mantova	1:3 ✺
30.07.26	Mantova - Alcione	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
04.03.26	Palermo - Mantova	2:1
11.01.26	Mantova - Palermo	1:1
16.02.25	Palermo - Mantova	2:2
30.10.24	Mantova - Palermo	0:0

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