Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 12 December 2024, Thursday

Location: Alphamega Stadium (Kolossi)

Referee: Raczkowski P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Paphos		Celje

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.5	5.25
	1.51	4.33	5
	1.52	4.5	5.5
	1.54	4.45	5.91
	1.51	4.49	5.54	Watch
	1.5	4.2	5
	1.58	4.41	5.69
	1.52	4.5	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.8)	4.42 ↑ (3.15)	5.42 ↑ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paphos
61.5%

Draw
21.2%

Celje
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

28.2%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.4%

27%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paphos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Paphos's performance.

Celje has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Celje might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Paphos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celje than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84%	12%	4%

Paphos - Celje Predictions

Users Predictions: Paphos will win (21 of 25 users predict this - 84%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.63% – 98.37%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ivusic I. (G) 7. Bruno 5. Goldar D. 23. Luckassen D. 2. Pileas K. 30. Dragomir V. 77. Correia J. 88. Pepe 26. Sunjic I. 22. Tankovic M. 10. Jairo (C)	22. Rozman M. (C) 2. Juanjo Nieto 23. Karnicnik Z. 6. Zec D. 81. Nemanic K. 19. Zabukovnik M. 4. Dulca M. 88. Svetlin T. 16. Kvesic M. 77. Brnic I. 7. Matko A.
Substitutes
33. Anderson Silva 70. Ilia M. 11. Jaja 9. Leo Natel 93. Michail N. (G) 25. Name M. 8. Quina D. 45. Rafael Pontelo 83. Theodoulou P. (G)	30. Edmilson 12. Kolar L. (G) 10. Kouter N. 5. Lhernault C. 11. Seslar S. 3. Vuklisevic D.
Coaches
Carcedo J.	Riera A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Svetlin T. 🟨,
23', Luckassen D. 🟨,
24', Zabukovnik M. (Pen),
28', Correia J. 🟨,
36', Pileas K. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', 1 - 0, Dragomir V. ⚽,
56', Kvesic M. ↓, Seslar S. ↑,
59', Pileas K. ↓, Rafael Pontelo ↑,
63', 2 - 0, Correia J. ⚽, Jairo (A),
67', Dulca M. ↓, Lhernault C. ↑,
67', Correia J. ↓, Jaja ↑,
75', Juanjo Nieto ↓, Vuklisevic D. ↑,
75', Matko A. ↓, Edmilson ↑,
85', Jairo ↓, Anderson Silva ↑,
85', Pepe ↓, Name M. ↑,
85', Tankovic M. ↓, Quina D. ↑,
90+1', Name M. 🟨,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Alphamega Stadium.

Recent matches Paphos is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Celje is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Paphos is a favorite.

There are questionable in Celje: Ajhmajer N. (Knee Injury) Iosifov N. (Injury) Kucys A. (Knee Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paphos FC
Cypriot First Division
08.12.24	Ethnikos Achna - Paphos	0:2 ✺
02.12.24	Paphos - Omonia	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.11.24	Fiorentina - Paphos	3:2 ✺
Cypriot First Division
23.11.24	Paphos - APOEL	2:1 ✺
10.11.24	Apollon Limassol - Paphos	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLLWW
- NK Celje
Slovenian PrvaLiga
07.12.24	Celje - Domžale	2:2 ✺
01.12.24	Nafta - Celje	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.11.24	Celje - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:3 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
23.11.24	Celje - Koper	1:0 ✺
10.11.24	Primorje - Celje	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TTTWW

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