Match Info

SLOVENIA: Prva liga - Round 26

Date: 16 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Z'dezele (Celje)

Referee: Matkovic A. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Sportklub 3
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Montenegro	Sportklub 3
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, SportKlub 3
Serbia	SportKlub 3
Slovenia	SportKlub 1


	Celje		Nafta

	1	X	2
	1.41	4.6	6
	1.4	4.7	6.6
	1.42	4.65	6.31
	1.4	4.78	7.03
	1.4	4.4	6.5
	1.44	4.45	6.68	Watch
	1.4	4.7	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↑ (1.33)	4.61 ↓ (4.88)	6.53 ↓ (8.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celje
65.7%

Draw
20.1%

Nafta
14.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.7%

18.9%

11.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.5%

18.2%

11%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celje has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Nafta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celje than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Celje, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nafta than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Celje - Nafta Predictions

Users Predictions: Celje will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Kolar L. (G) 2. Juanjo Nieto 99. Eguaras I. 81. Nemanic K. 6. Tutyskinas A. 35. Delaurier-Chaubet L. 10. Kouter N. 73. Prutsev E. 16. Kvesic M. 7. Matko A. 30. Edmilson Santos	31. Mauricio Z. (G) 2. Pirtovsek R. 4. Lesjak Z. 22. Tojcic K. 98. Dragoner A. 3. Marinic A. 17. Csoka D. 6. Hrka D. 18. Pihler A. 50. Spoljaric J. 77. Szalay S.
Substitutes
44. Bejger L. 40. Chidi A. 4. Dulca M. 17. Gobec S. 47. Kucys A. 5. Lhernault C. 41. Silva R. (G) 70. Sorensen H. 88. Svetlin T. 3. Vuklisevic D. 19. Zabukovnik M. 38. Zuzek Z.	8. Bozickovic L. 10. Brkic D. 51. Ceh M. 5. Dumancic L. 26. Georgievski H. 23. Kalnoki-Kis Z. 25. Kljun T. 46. Novak M. 90. Senko Z. (G)
Coaches
Riera A.	Bozsik J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', 1 - 0, Prutsev E. ⚽, Juanjo Nieto (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Eguaras I. ↓, Zabukovnik M. ↑,
46', Matko A. ↓, Sorensen H. ↑,
58', Csoka D. ↓, Kalnoki-Kis Z. ↑,
58', Bozickovic L. ↓, Dumancic L. ↑,
60', 1 - 1, Kalnoki-Kis Z. ⚽,
62', Tutyskinas A. 🟨,
67', Kvesic M. ↓, Svetlin T. ↑,
68', 1 - 2, Szalay S. ⚽, Marinic A. (A),
73', Prutsev E. ↓, Chidi A. ↑,
73', Delaurier-Chaubet L. ↓, Kucys A. ↑,
74', Lesjak Z. ↓, Kljun T. ↑,
78', Kouter N. 🟨,
78', Hrka D. 🟨,
86', 2 - 2, Zabukovnik M. ⚽, Chidi A. (A),
90+2', Spoljaric J. ↓, Brkic D. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 2, Kucys A. ⚽,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 5 and 9 in the zone Prva liga (Relegation)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Celje won 2.

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Celje could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Celje is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Celje won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10:5 (average 1.7:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Celje won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:2 (average 2.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Celje
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.03.25	Lugano - Celje	5:5 penalties ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
09.03.25	Celje - Primorje	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.03.25	Celje - Lugano	1:0 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
02.03.25	Olimpija Ljubljana - Celje	2:0 ✺
Slovenian Cup
26.02.25	Celje - Tabor Sežana	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WTWLW
- NK Nafta 1903
Slovenian PrvaLiga
13.03.25	Nafta - Domžale	3:2 ✺
08.03.25	NK Bravo - Nafta	1:1 ✺
Slovenian Cup
05.03.25	Čarda Martjanci - Nafta	1:2 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
01.03.25	Koper - Nafta	0:0 ✺
21.02.25	Nafta - Primorje	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Slovenian PrvaLiga
01.12.24	Nafta - Celje	0:0
15.09.24	Celje - Nafta	3:1
Slovenian Cup
22.11.23	Nafta - Celje	2:1 penalties
Club Friendly
16.01.21	Celje - Nafta	1:1
18.01.20	Celje - Nafta	3:0
Slovenian Cup
16.08.17	Nafta - Celje	1:2

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