Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 28 November 2024, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion Z'dezele (Celje) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Lindhout A. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	04:45	Stan Sport
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:45	Arena Sport 5, Moja TV
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	18:45	Disney+
Finland	19:45	Viaplay
France	18:45	Canal+ Live 17
Iceland	17:45	Viaplay
Indonesia	00:45	beIN Connect
Laos	00:45	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:45	beIN Connect
Myanmar	00:15	Canal+ Myanmar
Norway	18:45	Viaplay
Philippines	01:45	beIN Connect
Poland	18:45	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Slovenia	18:45	SportKlub 1
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Sweden	18:45	Disney+
Switzerland	18:45	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Thailand	00:45	beIN Connect
United Kingdom	17:45	Discovery+ UK
Usa	12:45	Paramount+
Vietnam	00:45	ON Plus
International	17:45	Disney+


	Celje		Jagiellonia Białystok

	1	X	2
	2	3.75	3.3
	2	3.6	3.1
	2.05	3.75	3.25	Watch
	2.08	3.9	3.39
	1.99	3.85	3.3	Watch
	2.3	3.4	2.7
	2.04	4.03	3.36
	2.05	3.75	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.6)	3.75 ↑ (3.15)	3.21 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celje
45.6%

Draw
25.1%

Jagiellonia Białystok
29.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.4%

29.2%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

28.7%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celje has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Celje's performance.

Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jagiellonia Białystok might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celje than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Celje that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jagiellonia Białystok could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.2%	18.4%	18.4%

Celje - Jagiellonia Białystok Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Celje will win (votes: 24 - 63.2%). Jagiellonia will win (votes: 7 - 18.4%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 18.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Celje: 47.9% – 78.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Stubljar L. (G) 2. Juanjo Nieto 81. Nemanic K. 6. Zec D. (C) 23. Karnicnik Z. 11. Seslar S. 88. Svetlin T. 19. Zabukovnik M. 7. Matko A. 77. Brnic I. 16. Kvesic M.	50. Abramowicz S. (G) 16. Sacek M. 3. Stojinovic D. 17. Dieguez A. 82. Costa Silva T. 14. Kubicki J. 39. Nguiamba A. 11. Imaz J. (C) 10. Pululu A. 9. Diaby-Fadiga L. 21. Churlinov D.
Substitutes
8. Bobicanec L. 4. Dulca M. 30. Edmilson 10. Kouter N. 5. Lhernault C. 22. Rozman M. (G) 3. Vuklisevic D.	4. Haliti J. 99. Hansen K. 22. Kovacik P. 29. Listkowski M. 8. Nene 80. Pietuszewski O. 5. Polak C. 51. Rybak A. 72. Skrzypczak M. 1. Stryjek M. (G) 71. Stypulkowski S. 20. Villar Miki
Coaches
Riera A.	Siemieniec A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Zec D. ⚽, Seslar S. (A),
33', Nemanic K. 🟨,
33', Juanjo Nieto 🟨,
34', Pululu A. (Pen),
34', 1 - 1, Pululu A. ⚽,
39', Churlinov D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
54', 2 - 1, Juanjo Nieto ⚽,
57', Diaby-Fadiga L. ↓, Hansen K. ↑,
68', Kubicki J. ↓, Nene ↑,
70', 2 - 2, Imaz J. ⚽, Hansen K. (A),
78', 2 - 3, Hansen K. ⚽, Imaz J. (A),
78', Kvesic M. ↓, Edmilson ↑,
80', 3 - 3, Dieguez A. (Own goal),
86', Churlinov D. ↓, Villar Miki ↑,
86', Costa Silva T. ↓, Skrzypczak M. ↑,
86', Pululu A. ↓, Listkowski M. ↑,
86', Nguiamba A. 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches Celje is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Jagiellonia is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Celje: Kucys A. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Jagiellonia: Romanczuk T. (Injury) Wojdakowski D. (Knee Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Celje
Slovenian PrvaLiga
23.11.24	Celje - Koper	1:0 ✺
10.11.24	Primorje - Celje	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.11.24	Betis - Celje	2:1 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
03.11.24	Celje - Olimpija Ljubljana	0:1 ✺
27.10.24	Radomlje - Celje	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWLLL
- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.11.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Śląsk Wrocław	2:2 ✺
10.11.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Raków Częstochowa	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.11.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Molde	3:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.11.24	Górnik Zabrze - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:2 ✺
Polish Cup
30.10.24	Chojniczanka Chojnice - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 TTWWW

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