Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 1 August 2024, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Alphamega Stadium (Kolossi) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Ebner S. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Cyprus	19:00	Cablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1


	Paphos		Žalgiris

	1	X	2
	1.27	5.5	7.5	Watch
	1.3	5.25	8
	1.3	5	9.5	Watch
	1.31	5.6	9.05
	1.29	5.58	8.83	Watch
	1.3	5.45	9.15
	1.3	5	9.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.58)	5.34 ↑ (3.92)	8.79 ↑ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paphos
71.9%

Draw
17.5%

Žalgiris
10.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.2%

23.5%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

23.6%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paphos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Paphos's performance.

Žalgiris has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Žalgiris might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (-13.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Paphos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Žalgiris than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Žalgiris could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75.8%	9.1%	15.2%

Paphos - Žalgiris Predictions

Users Predictions: Paphos will win (25 of 32 users predict this - 78.13%).
Confidence interval (95%): 63.81% – 92.45%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ivusic I. (G) 23. Luckassen D. 25. Name M. 5. Goldar D. 3. Melluso M. 7. Bruno 88. Pepe 30. Dragomir V. 22. Tankovic M. 10. Jairo (C) 11. Jaja	96. Tordai A. (G) 26. Zahary Y. 45. Moutachy J. 77. Kendysh Y. 7. Bopesu J. 8. Karashima Y. 22. Verbickas O. (C) 17. Matulevicius G. 10. Golubickas P. 80. Antal L. 11. Petkovic N.
Substitutes
33. Anderson Silva 34. Dall'Igna D. 80. Efzona C. 70. Ilia M. 81. Kolotas G. 93. Michail N. (G) 6. Pelagio P. 2. Pileas K. 45. Rafael 83. Theodoulou P. (G) 24. Valakari O.	56. Aliukonis J. (G) 2. Fofana A. 15. Hodzic A. 12. Larsson J. 1. Markovic D. (G) 44. Matyzonok P. 18. Mazur M. 71. Mihajlovic N. 41. Setkus M.
Coaches
Carcedo J.	Cheburin V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Tankovic M. ⚽, Jairo (A),
37', Zahary Y. 🟥,
40', Petkovic N. ↓, Mazur M. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Jaja ↓, Anderson Silva ↑,
63', Name M. ↓, Pelagio P. ↑,
67', Moutachy J. 🟨,
71', Pepe ↓, Valakari O. ↑,
90', Antal L. ↓, Hodzic A. ↑,
Extra Time (2 - 0)
96', Golubickas P. ↓, Fofana A. ↑,
96', Melluso M. ↓, Pileas K. ↑,
101', 2 - 0, Anderson Silva ⚽,
105', Kendysh Y. 🟨,
113', Karashima Y. ↓, Setkus M. ↑,
113', Matulevicius G. ↓, Mihajlovic N. ↑,
114', Jairo ↓, Ilia M. ↑,
118', 3 - 0, Dragomir V. ⚽, Ilia M. (A),

Preview

2nd leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Alphamega Stadium. 1st leg result: 1-2.

Paphos is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Žalgiris is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Paphos is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Paphos won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paphos FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
25.07.24	Žalgiris - Paphos	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
18.07.24	Paphos - Elfsborg	2:5 ✺
11.07.24	Elfsborg - Paphos	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
03.07.24	Paphos - Panathinaikos	0:0 ✺
28.06.24	Paphos - Ilirija Ljubljana	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLLTW
- Žalgiris Vilnius
UEFA Europa Conference League
25.07.24	Žalgiris - Paphos	2:1 ✺
18.07.24	Žalgiris - VPS Vaasa	1:0 ✺
11.07.24	VPS Vaasa - Žalgiris	1:2 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
05.07.24	Kauno Žalgiris - Žalgiris	1:0 ✺
30.06.24	Hegelmann Litauen - Žalgiris	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
25.07.24	Žalgiris - Paphos	2:1

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