Match Info

TOPLYGA - Round 16

Date: 31 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Darius and Girėnas Stadium (Kaunas)

Referee: Valikonis R. (Ltu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Lithuania	LNK


	Kauno Žalgiris		Žalgiris

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.75	4.55	Watch
	1.62	4.05	5.03
	1.66	4.07	4.52	Watch
	1.65	3.5	4.5
	1.6	3.78	4.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.77)	3.83 ↑ (3.62)	4.67 ↑ (3.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kauno Žalgiris
56.4%

Draw
23.9%

Žalgiris
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.4%

25.2%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

24.4%

22.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kauno Žalgiris has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Žalgiris has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kauno Žalgiris than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Žalgiris than the current prediction. (+3%)

Kauno Žalgiris - Žalgiris Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
55. Svedkauskas T. (G) 45. Moutachy J. 3. Tolordava A. 23. Hernandez A. 37. Iyobosa Edokpolor N. 15. Leo Ribeiro 10. Sirgedas G. (C) 8. Karashima Y. 70. Ourega F. 7. Benchaib A. 24. Burba M.	12. Sarkauskas V. (G) 13. Upstas K. 5. Turda G. 15. Bosancic P. 77. Kendysh Y. 22. Verbickas O. (C) 6. Capan M. 18. Sesplaukis D. 10. Golubickas P. 70. Teixeira B. 11. Petkovic N.
Substitutes
1. Aliukonis J. (G) 32. Baldassarra F. 2. Burdzilauskas T. 11. Cernych F. 9. Ikaunieks D. 17. Kayode O. 77. Lekiatas R. 22. Mikelionis D. (G) 79. Paulauskas V. 6. Pavlovic D. 4. Racic L.	8. Antal L. 9. Jarusevicius G. 23. Mamatsashvili S. 44. Matyzonok P. 7. Mihajlovic N. 1. Olses C. (G) 30. Seck O. 14. Setkus M. 27. Vareika M.
Coaches
Cerniauskas E.	Skerla A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', 0 - 1, Petkovic N. ⚽,
70', Leo Ribeiro ↓, Ikaunieks D. ↑,
72', Golubickas P. ↓, Vareika M. ↑,
80', Moutachy J. ↓, Burdzilauskas T. ↑,
80', Ourega F. ↓, Baldassarra F. ↑,
80', Sirgedas G. ↓, Pavlovic D. ↑,
80', Ikaunieks D. 🟨,
83', 🟨,
84', Verbickas O. ↓, Matyzonok P. ↑,
90+1', Petkovic N. ↓, Setkus M. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kauno Žalgiris won 4.

Kauno Žalgiris has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Žalgiris is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Žalgiris may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Kauno Žalgiris is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kauno Žalgiris won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 28:30. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Kauno Žalgiris won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.4:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kauno Zalgiris	28	14	9	5	56:20	36	51
4	Zalgiris	28	13	5	10	41:34	7	44

Last Results with these Odds

Kauno Žalgiris - the odds 1.77 are the expected chance of winning is 51.37%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
23.05.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Kauno Žalgiris	2:1 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
19.05.26	Riteriai - Kauno Žalgiris	0:4 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
16.05.26	Kauno Žalgiris - FA Šiauliai	0:0 ✺
10.05.26	Panevėžys - Kauno Žalgiris	1:1 ✺
05.05.26	Kauno Žalgiris - Džiugas Telšiai	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LWTTT
- Žalgiris Vilnius
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
24.05.26	Žalgiris - Hegelmann Litauen	1:3 ✺
17.05.26	Transinvest - Žalgiris	1:0 ✺
10.05.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Žalgiris	1:1 ✺
06.05.26	Žalgiris - FA Šiauliai	3:1 ✺
03.05.26	Panevėžys - Žalgiris	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian TOPLYGA
05.04.26	Žalgiris - Kauno Žalgiris	0:3
22.10.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Žalgiris	1:2
04.08.25	Žalgiris - Kauno Žalgiris	1:2
Lithuanian Cup
20.05.25	Žalgiris - Kauno Žalgiris	2:4 ET
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
17.05.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Žalgiris	3:0
06.04.25	Žalgiris - Kauno Žalgiris	0:0
22.09.24	Žalgiris - Kauno Žalgiris	5:0

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